College Football Week 3 Picks: Best Early Bets (2026)

College football gave us some exciting games in Week 2, led by No. 4 Texas mounting a 4th-quarter comeback to beat No. 1 Ohio State. Michigan used its defensive prowess and a run-centric game plan to upset No. 11 Oklahoma, while No. 6 Oregon lost as a -23.5 point road favorite to Oklahoma State.

My College Football Week 2 Picks: Early Best Bets (2026) went 1-2 on Saturday. Oklahoma never had a real chance to win and cover -5.5, going down 10-0 to the Wolverines at halftime. Arizona held its own against No. 15 BYU but gave up a late touchdown, losing 28-17, falling short of covering +7.5 on the road. The win came in Ohio State vs. Texas, cashing Under 48.5 during Texas’ 24-23 win.

Looking ahead to Week 3, I’ve got three early best bets to place, tracking line movement in point spread and total betting markets. Games worth noting include No. 22 Houston vs. No. 13 Texas Tech, No. 16 SMU vs. No. 23 Louisville, and Michigan State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame.

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College Football Week 3 Best Bets & Early Line Movement Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Home	Away	Open Spread	Current Spread	Open Total	Current Total	Spread +/-	Total +/-
Texas Tech	Houston	-13.5	-7.5	54.5	53.5	+6.0	-1.0
Louisville	SMU	-1.5	-1.5	56.5	59.5	0	+3.0
Notre Dame	Michigan State	-29.5	-29.5	53.5	52.5	0	-1.0

Houston (22) vs. Texas Tech (13)

Friday night features a pivotal Big 12 matchup between Houston and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have moved from -13.5 to -7.5, likely due to the production coming from the Cougars’ offense in the first two weeks.

Houston is led by QB Connor Weigman, scoring 33 points in a Week 1 win over Oregon State, before routing FCS Southern University 77-6 in Week 2. The Cougars are averaging 7.2 YPC and have 9 rushing touchdowns, while holding opponents to just 0.4 YPC.

Texas Tech has also played Oregon State, going on the road to beat the Beavers 35-24 in Week 2. The Red Raiders gave up over 400 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, so Weigman and the Cougars have a great opportunity to pull off the upset in Lubbock on Friday night.

Let’s follow the steam and bet on Houston +7.5, especially since it’s through a key number.

Pick: Houston +7.5 (-108)

SMU (16) vs. Louisville (23)

The ACC is gifting us another entertaining matchup when the SMU Mustangs travel to take on Louisville during Saturday’s late afternoon slate. The Cardinals are -1.5 point betting favorites at home, while the total has risen 3 points from 56.5 to 59.5.

Louisville fought hard during its season opener against No. 8 Ole Miss, coming up just short in a 41-38 loss. The AP recognizes the Cardinals’ talent, keeping them inside the top 25 after a 59-13 win over Villanova (FCS) in Week 2.

QB Lincoln Kienholz is averaging 5.6 YPC and leads Louisville with 3 rushing touchdowns, while posting a 68 percent completion rate with over 600 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

SMU QB Kevin Jenkins is equally talented. The Mustangs’ signal-caller has sliced opponents with a 76.9 percent completion rate, 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, showing big improvement as a passer in 2026.

The line is tight on this game due to both offenses having explosive play-making ability. If SMU were at home, they’d likely be a -1.5 or -2.5 point betting favorite, but the crowd will work in favor of Louisville.

SMU was taken down to the wire by a mediocre Florida State team in Week 1. Louisville has played the better opponent in Ole Miss and came close to pulling off the upset. At home, I think head coach Jeff Brohm finds a way to get it done.

Let’s bet on the Cardinals to win outright, taking Louisville moneyline at -115 odds.

Pick: Louisville Moneyline (-115)

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame (3)

Michigan State finds itself undefeated under first-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald. Now, the Spartans will look to turn this momentum into a season-defining win in an attempt to upset No. 3 Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday night.

The Spartans’ offense goes through RB Camryn Edwards, averaging 5.2 YPC on 48 attempts. QB Alessio Milivojevic has been solid, throwing over 70 percent for 417 yards, 3 touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

Michigan State’s year has started with back-to-back wins over MAC opponents. The Spartans have held Toledo and Eastern Michigan to 3.9 YPC, while surrendering under a 60 percent completion rate with a +1 turnover margin.

The Fighting Irish defense is legit. Under head coach Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame has allowed 2.0 YPC against Wisconsin and Rice, forcing five fumbles and not allowing a rushing touchdown.

This matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring, old-school game script. The point total has shifted from 53.5 to 52.5. Let’s grab this number before it gets any lower.

Bet Under 52.5 as my final early best bet in Week 3.

Pick: Under 52.5 (-115)

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