College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (9/24)
Here are our best odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s College Football Week 4 slate of games.
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College Football Week 4 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday
Kansas vs. Duke OVER 64.5
Let’s go with another Kansas Over and ride this wave! I’ve hammered the narrative of Jalon Daniels scoring at least 28 points in every game he’s started. Last week, the Jayhawks put up their lowest total of the season with only 48 points against Houston. This top 3 scoring offense is fueled by the run game, which is currently seventh in the country, averaging 259 ground yards per game. Duke’s offense hasn’t been as effective, but the Blue Devils have put up at least 30 points in each of their three wins. Duke’s offense is also fueled by the run game, ranking 38th in the nation and averaging 205 yards per game.
The only thing that might be concerning is that these teams are 97th (Kansas) and 106th (Duke) in plays per game. This total still holds up if we look at Points Per Drive and drop to the lowest drives either team has had in a game at 8; that final would be 42-28.
These defenses have been less than impressive. Kansas has given up at least 30 points to the two P5 teams they’ve played. Duke is much better at scoring defense. They gave up 435 passing yards to Northwestern and 217 rushing yards to FCS NCA&T, proving this defense can get beat either way. Of course, these are short sample sizes, but if we go back to last year’s defenses, we are talking about the 129th-ranked scoring defense from Kansas (42.2 PPG), and Duke wasn’t much better at 127th (39.8 PPG).
I thought that the Kansas offense would control this game. In the two P5 games Kansas has played, the average total was 87.5. The total we have is 3 TDs short of that, so it feels safe to me!
Bet: Over 64.5 (-110 on DraftKings)
- Scott Bogman
#18 Washington (-14) vs. Stanford
Michael Penix has turned this Huskies offense into the 2nd highest in passing yards per game, and they have looked outstanding. Michigan State was a big test, and they passed with flying colors putting up 503 total yards and 397 through the air. Washington has also been much stronger than expected on Defense through 3 games, only giving up an average of 18 PPG. The Huskies also rank in the top 30 in rushing defense and top 40 in passing defense, despite being up by at least 18 points at halftime of all three games they’ve played.
Stanford is a team that can jump up and bites a stronger opponent. They did it to Oregon last season, and they played Washington tough, losing by only a TD. Stanford only lost to USC by 13 points last week, but they scored twice in the final two minutes, and their leading offensive producer, RB E.J. Smith, is out for this game with an undisclosed injury.
Washington’s offense is why I think they run away with this game because it will pressure Stanford to abandon the run and pass in the 2nd half, leading to either short fields or turnovers for Washington. Stanford QB Tanner McKee is a big-time recruit and is on NFL radars, but he made some mistakes last week, throwing two picks and taking five sacks. Washington isn’t the get-right game for Stanford, and I have the Huskies winning big.
Bet: Washington -14 (-104 on FanDuel)
- Scott Bogman
Western Kentucky (-31) vs. FIU and OVER 64.5
This one is simply a mismatch, and most teams versus FIU is a lopsided game, but this should be the week that WKU explodes on offense. This is the same offensive system that produced 63 passing TDs in 2021, 15 more than runner-up Alabama! QB Austin Reed hasn’t been what Bailey Zappe was last year. He’s only thrown for 300 yards once (Zappe only had one game under 300 last season), and he hasn’t quite hit an eye-popping game yet. This game is probably one in which WKU will want him to build his confidence, potentially running up the score while the foot is firmly on the gas.
FIU was ranked very low on about every publication coming into the season, and they have lived up to that expectation. FIU held off FCS Bryant by one point in Week 1, and they were stomped by Texas State 41-12 in Week 2, allowing them to pile up 452 yards of offense. Texas State lost to Nevada in Week 1, we are scraping the bottom of the FBS barrel here, and FIU is getting blown out.
WKU will get the majority of this total themselves and, in doing so, will probably cruise right past this massive spread as well! All gas and no brakes for the Hilltoppers!
Bet: Western Kentucky -31 (-115 on DraftKings) and OVER 64.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
- Scott Bogman
Cincinnati (-16.5) vs. Indiana
Indiana is the luckiest team in the nation. This past Saturday, the Hoosiers trailed WKU from the 11:02 mark in the 2Q to 48 seconds left in regulation. At that time, trailing by eight, the Hoosiers scored a TD and converted the 2-point try to force OT, where Indiana ended up winning.
The Hoosiers finished with a 10.7% postgame win expectancy. The postgame adjusted scoring margin was WKU -10.7. It was IU's second improbable come-from-behind win of the first three games - the Hoosiers did something similar to Illinois in the opener.
Heck, Indiana had to come from behind in the second half to overcome a 10-0 halftime deficit to mediocre FCS outfit Idaho. Indiana is 3-0, but with only 1.4 second-order wins. IU's +1.6 second-order wins is 0.7 above the next-highest teams in the country!
Incredibly, the fluky record convinced Vegas to open this number in the single digits. That was a big mistake, as I talked about with Thomas Viola on our Sunday lookahead show (highly recommended if you haven't checked it out).
Sharps mercilessly hammered Cincy on Sunday to drive the line from UC -8.5 to UC -14 by Sunday evening. But they didn't stop there. This line has been bet up to UC -16.5. I still don't think it's gone far enough, particularly when you consider that Indiana just lost its starting C Zach Carpenter to a hand injury.
My numbers suggest Cincy should be favored by around three TDs. I'm holding a UC -14 ticket. But I would recommend a bet on the Bearcats at any number below 20.
- Thor Nystrom
Central Michigan (+28) at Penn State
This a straightforward, matchup-based handicap.
Penn State is 3-0 despite ranking in the bottom-five of the country in PFF tackling and ranking lower than No. 85 in both defensive rushing success rate and opportunity rate. The defense is still hanging in at No. 9 SP+, primarily because PSU prevents explosive plays, tightens in the red zone and has benefited from 3.9 points of turnover luck per game, per SP+.
But what PSU is categorically incapable of doing is keeping opposing rushing games off schedule. CMU's offense is built around pounding the rock with RB Lew Nichols on early downs. The 5-foot-11, 222-pound Nichols is not an explosive back. He's a bowling ball who breaks tackles and doesn't fumble.
In 451 touches since the start of last season, Nichols has fumbled only once. Over that span, 1,149 of his 2,122 rushing yards have come after contact - 54.1%. Expect Nichols to break a ton of tackles on Saturday.
Meanwhile, CMU ranks top-15 in PFF tackling and No. 25 in PFF run defense. So the Chips should succeed in incentivizing PSU to have more predictable offensive play-calling patterns, theoretically making the Nittany Lions easier to defend.
History also suggests this is a good spot for CMU to stay within the number. The Chips are 5-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season and 9-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog since the beginning of the 2018 season (dating to the season before HC Jim McElwain's tenure began).
- Thor Nystrom
Old Dominion (-5.5) vs. Arkansas State
This is a nice opportunity to grab some line value on a "buy" team (Old Dominion) playing a "sell" team (Arkansas State).
The Monarchs are 1-2 - with an upset win over Virginia Tech in the opener - but could easily be 2-1. Last week, ODU lost a tough 16-14 decision to Virginia.
ODU hasn't run the ball as well as I expected so far - RB Blake Watson was a breakout star down the stretch last season - but the Monarchs are generating offense with explosive passing plays. WR Ali Jennings is a deep-ball maven, and TE Zach Kuntz (former four-star Penn State signing) is a matchup nightmare for any opponent down the seam.
Carrying over from last season, Arkansas State still has one of the nation's worst defenses. That defense is particularly bad at preventing explosive plays. Ranked No. 124 SP+ overall on that side of the ball, ASU checks in at No. 129 in both defensive IsoPPP and marginal explosiveness. Against the pass, ASU is dead-last, No. 131, in preventing explosive plays. A big part of the problem is being allergic to tackling - ASU ranks bottom 15 in the country in PFF tackling.
ASU loves to throw the ball. But with WR Tevailance Hunt sidelined with a lower-body injury, the Red Wolves forced the ball to new WR1 Champ Flemings, who has 10 more targets than any other player on the roster.
That's despite Flemings' day ending early against Memphis last week after an undisclosed lingering injury cropped up. Arkansas State's compromised receiving corps doesn't portend well for this matchup. If Flemings and Hunt are both unavailable, ASU will have to run more than it prefers or target receivers it has mostly avoided through three weeks.
- Thor Nystrom
Charlotte (+22) at South Carolina
This is a perception vs. reality spread. It is treating South Carolina like a legitimate SEC team while seemingly overlooking the circumstances of Charlotte's 1-3 start.
Charlotte's first three games could not have gone worse. The offense immediately cratered when Charlotte lost QB Chris Reynolds to an undisclosed injury in the opener against FAU. Without Reynolds, Charlotte lost 43-13 to FAU, were stunned 41-24 by FCS William & Mary at home and then lost by 35 to Maryland.
But Reynolds returned last week. And voila, Charlotte was magically competitive again. Charlotte, a 20-point underdog, controlled much of the game and held on for a 42-41 road victory over Georgia State. The final score made the game appear closer than it actually was: Charlotte's postgame adjusted scoring margin was +8.4, per SP+.
Since the start of last year, Charlotte has been a respectable 6-7 SU with Reynolds starting and finishing the game and a perfect 4-0 ATS as a favorite. With Reynolds back under center, you can erase the first three games from your mind and return to thinking about Charlotte as you did entering the season.
South Carolina hasn't looked as good as we hoped it would in the early going. The Gamecocks are 1-2 SU and have failed to cover their last two games. South Carolina is bad in the trenches. Its offensive line is leaky, and its defensive front isn't getting after the quarterback, nor stopping the run.
Charlotte's biggest offensive weakness is its shaky offensive line, but South Carolina isn't exactly equipped to take advantage of that. Charlotte's worst thing on defense is its coverage. Yet, uSC QB Spencer Rattler, who has often been under duress, may not be able to take consistent advantage of that. Rattler currently ranks No. 135 out of 137 qualifiers in PFF passing grade.
This line is inflated. I like the 'dog to keep it within the number.
- Thor Nystrom
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