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College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Saturday (10/15)

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Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s slate.

Check out our College Football game previews for Week 7:

And here are our other articles with picks of the weekend:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Saturday

Tennessee (+7.5) vs. Alabama

This spread is more or less fair if Alabama QB Bryce Young is fully healthy. It’s slightly off if Young plays but is compromised. And it’s way, way off if Young doesn’t play.

Alabama is in deep trouble if Young is inactive again, as he was last week against Texas A&M with a right shoulder AC joint sprain. Not only because there’s a seismic qualitative drop-off to QB2 Jalen Milroe, but also because it prevents Alabama from exploiting Tennessee’s biggest singular weakness.

The Vols have a below-average pass defense that ranks No. 73 in success rate. A healthy Young piles up yardage against that pass defense. Milroe, as yet, is not equipped to take advantage. He’s a fabulous athlete who remains raw as a passer – an issue exacerbated by Alabama’s down receiving corps.

What Milroe can do is run. Young was injured in the second quarter of the Oct. 1 game against Arkansas. In the six-plus quarters since Milroe took over, Milroe has rushed for 172 yards and a TD. Extrapolated, that’s an average of more than 100 rushing yards per game. Alabama’s passing offense drops off a cliff with Milroe in, but the Tide’s rushing attack becomes a little more dangerous.

Here’s the problem for Bama in that scenario: Tennessee’s run defense is awesome. The Vols’ run D ranks No. 3 in success rate and No. 9 in stuff rate. The combo of Milroe and RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan are enough to beat most teams (they ran for 235 yards combined last week versus A&M) without a humming passing attack. Not the Vols.

Alabama has a strong defense. Tennessee will move the ball on it. The Vols will move the ball against any defense in the nation. The Vols are multiple – ranking top-10 in both rushing and passing success – and have one of the sport’s truly elite offensive play-callers calling the shots in HC Josh Heupel. Tennessee is like a pitcher with four filthy pitches and great control who sequences impeccably, overwhelming and confusing batters.

Vols WR1 Cedric Tillman didn’t play against LSU due to the high-ankle sprain he suffered against Florida on Sept. 24. The Alabama game was always Tillman’s target return date. Heupel also expects starting LT Gerald Mincey back this week after Mincey missed the LSU game.

If there’s good news about Tillman’s absence, it’s that it thrust Vols WR Bru McCoy into a featured role in which he could sink or swim. He swam. The former five-star posted consecutive 100-yard games and finally appears to be flowering into what the recruiting gurus told us he’d become out of high school.

Young is worth around 10 points on the spread. Tillman is worth a point or two. If Young is out and Tillman is in, I’d actually favor Tennessee outright. If Young plays but isn’t himself – which is the heavily-favored outcome two-weeks out from an AC sprain of his throwing shoulder – I’d nick Alabama a field goal or so on my spread. Either way, the value is on Tennessee.

Pick: Tennessee +7.5

  • Thor Nystrom

Western Kentucky (-5.5) @ Middle Tennessee State

I feel like MTSU is getting a little bit too much respect with this line. Middle Tennessee had one of the biggest upsets I’ve seen, beating the Hurricanes on their own home turf in Week 4, and they should be proud!  It was a huge win for the program, but the other five games they played went exactly as expected. 

MTSU beat Colorado State and FCS Tennessee State but was beaten by James Madison, UTSA, and UAB. I thought MTSU had a chance against UAB as 10-point underdogs, but UAB smashed them by 27 last week. Every game that MTSU has lost, they have lost against the spread, and I believe they will lose this game.

Western Kentucky matches up well with MTSU because they sling the rock! WKU has a top-3 passing offense in the country, behind only Washington by two yards and Texas Tech by 10. QB Austin Reed hadn’t thrown for 350 in a game before the 73-0 thrashing of FIU, but in the two games since, he has gone for 406 and 373. Reed is on a heater, and MTSU is BAD against the aerial attack this season. They rank 119th in passing yards against, allowing over 280 yards per game, and 105th in QB Rating against. The three losses have been particularly bad: 278 yards to UAB’s Dylan Hopkins (season-high), 414 yards to Frank Harris of UTSA (season-high), and 287 yards to James Madison’s Todd Centenio (which wasn’t a season-high, but his six passing TDs were).

MTSU has been hit-or-miss on offense this season, putting up over 40 points twice and 30 or more twice, but also has been held to seven in Week 1 and only 14 last week against UAB. WKU statistically ranks slightly above average on defense and grades out as slightly below average, according to PFF. MTSU has made some six plays over 50 yards which are tied for 6th-most in the country, but half of those came against Miami. WKU hasn’t given up a 50-yard play yet this season. This is a bad matchup for MTSU, and all we are asking them to cover is 5.5 points. I think they do that and then some!

Pick: Western Kentucky -5.5 (-110)

  • Scott Bogman

Kansas (+9) at Oklahoma

The Jayhawks are 5-0-1 ATS, one of only three teams that hasn’t yet suffered an ATS loss (the other two, James Madison and TCU, have played five games to KU’s six). The Sooners have failed to cover four of their last five games. Yet the Jayhawks continue to get no respect on the line, while the sportsbooks continue to drop bad Oklahoma spreads. We’ve got a window of opportunity here.

Since a cotton-soft opening-slate (UTEP, Kent State, Nebraska), Oklahoma has been exposed. In the past three games – against K-State, TCU, and Texas – OU has lost by an average score of 48-19.

This line opened in the OU -7/-7.5 range. In the days since Sunday, the market has reacted to quarterback health news on both sides in pushing this spread to OU -9. KU QB Jalon Daniels (right shoulder) is listed as doubtful but will likely miss the game, while OU QB Dillon Gabriel is listed as questionable but is likely to play.

Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU – his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with a healthy Gabriel – if the tides change and he’s out, I’d favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large, as anyone who watched Oklahoma get demoralized by Texas 49-0 last weekend could attest.

KU’s Daniels is a good player. But his absence for KU isn’t worth nearly as much as Gabriel’s would be for OU. That’s because of the quality of each team’s backup QBs. Daniels’ backup, Jason Bean, lit up TCU off the bench in the second half of last week’s near-miss, going 16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TD, and one INT.

Bean started in 2020 at North Texas, and also started the first nine games for KU last season before suffering an injury. Bean has a solid arm, and he’s a former Texas prep track star who is one of the fastest players on the team. Bean is also extremely well-versed in HC Lance Leipold’s offense.

Bean is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the FBS. As crazy as this sounds in lieu of Daniels’ great start… Bean isn’t much of a downgrade. Bean would be starting for at least one-quarter of the FBS’ 131 teams, while Beville likely wouldn’t have won the job at any.

While the market focuses on Gabriel’s availability, OU has much bigger health problems on the other side of the ball. Venables has already said starting S Billy Bowman will miss this game, Without Bowman prowling deep, Texas had no problem hunting for the long ball last week.

Oklahoma is also down to four healthy scholarship linebackers due to injuries. Venables was terrified of LB depth publicly before Shane Whittier’s season-ending injury. OU has had to rely heavily on one walk-on at the position, and it may have to start burning redshirts.

The injuries and apparent lack of talent have put Venables in a tough spot. Does Venables go vanilla the rest of the way and neuter his schematic advantage, or does ge ask his outmanned LB corps to perform tasks they aren’t capable of? Classic lose-lose.

Any way you cut it, Kansas’ offense against Oklahoma’s defense is an enormous mismatch in favor of the Jayhawks. While the Jayhawks rank No. 26 in success rate, No. 10 in IsoPPP (explosiveness), and No. 32 in points per scoring opportunity, the Sooners’ defense ranks No. 98, No. 51, and No. 101 in those categories. Kansas is adept at getting into the ball into space and forcing one-on-one tackle attempts. The Sooners rank No. 125 in tackle rate.

Kansas is a live underdog, even with Bean under center, and even if Gabriel is a-go. If the tide turns and Gabriel is ruled out, load up on KU.

Pick: Kansas +9

  • Thor Nystrom

California @ Colorado UNDER 49

Once again, we are picking on a bottom-feeder team here in Colorado who is currently 0-5 and has scored 17 points or fewer in four of five games. I don’t really want to touch the spread here, as Colorado fired Karl Dorrell after last week’s game, and they have a chance to respond here as most teams will after firing an ineffective coach.

Cal is a little bit of a mystery when it comes to offense. They only rank above average (statistically) in passing yards and are ranked low in almost all PFF offensive grades. One that stands out among the PFF grades is that they actually rank 3rd in run grade behind the outstanding freshman RB Jaydn Ott but also rank 122nd of 131 teams in run blocking. This means anything Ott gets, he’s mainly creating by himself, making him even more impressive.  

The defensive side for Cal is also a bit one-sided in that they are top 40 against the rush but 109th against the pass. PFF grades are rough on Cal’s defense, too, ranking them 86th or lower in every defensive grade, and they are particularly bad at rushing the QB, ranking 130th.  

The good news is that Colorado is even more inept on the offensive side. Colorado is one of 3 teams averaging under 14 PPG, one of 27 teams averaging less than 200 yards passing, and they are 108th in rushing. This is a chance for Colorado to straighten out their offense against a poor defensive team, but 21 points would end up being a season-high. California should win this game going away, but we do have the aforementioned ‘dead cat bounce’ game after Dorrell’s firing and the possible look-ahead game for the Bears as they have Washington next week. I’ll bet that both of these offenses are hard to watch, and we end up well below the 49 total.

Pick: Under 49 (-110)

  • Scott Bogman

LSU (+3) at Florida

Due to LSU QB Jayden Daniels’ accuracy issues and the Tigers’ lack of explosion in the backfield, the Bayou Bengals struggle to generate explosive plays (No. 126 IsoPPP). But LSU’s diverse run game and get-you-over passing attack has kept the chains moving (No. 34 success rate).

Florida’s defense is equipped to stop the thing LSU doesn’t do (No. 39 IsoPPP), but struggles badly in the area LSU’s offense excels in (No. 112 success rate). In particular, Florida’s run defense (No. 110 success rate) is going to have problems slowing LSU’s rushing attack (No. 19 success rate).

On the other side of the ball, LSU’s pass defense is very strong, and it isn’t short on athleticism. It should be able to slow Florida’s inconsistent passing attack. Florida’s rushing game has surprisingly not been efficient (No. 80 success rate), but has gotten by through generating explosive runs (No. 1 rushing explosion).

This, too, plays into LSU’s hands. LSU’s defense struggles to stop opposing rushing attacks from moving the chains (No. 80 efficiency), but can prevent the explosive runs that Florida feasts on (No. 29 rushing explosiveness).

My numbers say the wrong team is favored. I think LSU prevails in this one.

Pick: LSU +3

  • Thor Nystrom

UTSA (-33.5) @ FIU & OVER 63.5

We are picking on FIU again but picking against FIU and picking UTSA has been pretty good to me for a while now, so I love both sides.  UTSA is a highly efficient offensive team. They have scored at least 31 points in four of five games, with the only game under that being against Texas. FIU has allowed 30 or more points in four of five games and, on average, has allowed opponents to score 17 points more than they average per game. UTSA is averaging 37.3 PPG so that would put them at 54 points, and at that point, we are just asking for FIU to score 10 points to get to our total.

FIU has won two games, but they beat New Mexico State, which might be one of the very few FBS teams that are actually worse than them, and Bryant, an FCS opponent that is currently at 2-4. FIU ranks 99th or lower in passing, rushing, and scoring defense. UTSA is a pass-heavy team, but FIU let Western Kentucky run for 210 yards against them in the blowout loss. They average fewer rushing yards than UTSA, even with that game included.

This game is on a Friday, which means both teams have less time to prepare. This also favors UTSA, which has brought back a lot of experience. This isn’t a look-ahead week for the Roadrunners either, as they have North Texas at home next week. As I’m writing this, there is about a 40% chance of rain which I don’t think will really affect the outcome. UTSA has experience and continuity while FIU is rebuilding. I feel like the final score is going to be similar to the WKU game for FIU, and the Roadrunners win in an absolute beatdown!

Pick: UTSA -33.5 (-110) and OVER 63.5 (-110)

  • Scott Bogman

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