College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kansas vs. Oklahoma (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 7 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday’s game: Kansas vs. Oklahoma.
Check out our other College Football game previews for Week 7:
- Auburn vs. Ole Miss
- Maryland vs. Indiana
- LSU vs. Florida
- Clemson vs. Florida State
- Stanford vs. Notre Dame
- Alabama vs. Tennessee
- Penn State vs. Michigan
- USC vs. Utah
- Eastern Michigan vs. Northern Illinois
- Syracuse vs. North Carolina State
- Toledo vs. Kent State
- North Texas vs. Louisiana Tech
- California vs. Colorado
- Arkansas vs. BYU
- Arizona vs. Washington
- Nevada vs. Hawaii
- UTSA vs. FIU
- James Madison vs. Georgia Southern
- Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee State
And here are our top picks of the weekend:
- Thor Nystrom’s Best College Football Week 7 Bets
- Bogman’s College Football Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions
- College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks, & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 7 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 7 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Kansas vs. Oklahoma
The Jayhawks are 5-0-1 ATS, one of only three teams that hasn’t yet suffered an ATS loss (the other two, James Madison and TCU, have played five games to KU’s six). The Sooners have failed to cover four of their last five games. Yet the Jayhawks continue to get no respect on the line, while the sportsbooks continue to drop bad Oklahoma spreads. We’ve got a window of opportunity here.
Since a cotton-soft opening-slate (UTEP, Kent State, Nebraska), Oklahoma has been exposed. In the past three games – against K-State, TCU, and Texas – OU has lost by an average score of 48-19.
This line opened in the OU -7/-7.5 range. In the days since Sunday, the market has reacted to quarterback health news on both sides in pushing this spread to OU -9. KU QB Jalon Daniels (right shoulder) is listed as doubtful but will likely miss the game, while OU QB Dillon Gabriel is listed as questionable but is likely to play.
Gabriel might be worth 10 points on the spread for OU – his status is enormous for this handicap. My adjusted number above is with a healthy Gabriel – if the tides change and he’s out, I’d favor Kansas. The drop-off to Davis Beville is that large, as anyone who watched Oklahoma get demoralized by Texas 49-0 last weekend could attest.
KU’s Daniels is a good player. But his absence for KU isn’t worth nearly as much as Gabriel’s would be for OU. That’s because of the quality of each team’s backup QBs. Daniels’ backup, Jason Bean, lit up TCU off the bench in the second half of last week’s near-miss, going 16-for-24 for 262 yards, four TD, and one INT.
Bean started in 2020 at North Texas, and also started the first nine games for KU last season before suffering an injury. Bean has a solid arm, and he’s a former Texas prep track star who is one of the fastest players on the team. Bean is also extremely well-versed in HC Lance Leipold’s offense.
Bean is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the FBS. As crazy as this sounds in lieu of Daniels’ great start… Bean isn’t much of a downgrade. Bean would be starting for at least one-quarter of the FBS’ 131 teams, while Beville likely wouldn’t have won the job at any.
While the market focuses on Gabriel’s availability, OU has much bigger health problems on the other side of the ball. Venables has already said starting S Billy Bowman will miss this game, Without Bowman prowling deep, Texas had no problem hunting for the long ball last week.
Oklahoma is also down to four healthy scholarship linebackers due to injuries. Venables was terrified of LB depth publicly before Shane Whittier’s season-ending injury. OU has had to rely heavily on one walk-on at the position, and it may have to start burning redshirts.
The injuries and apparent lack of talent have put Venables in a tough spot. Does Venables go vanilla the rest of the way and neuter his schematic advantage, or does ge ask his outmanned LB corps to perform tasks they aren’t capable of? Classic lose-lose.
Any way you cut it, Kansas’ offense against Oklahoma’s defense is an enormous mismatch in favor of the Jayhawks. While the Jayhawks rank No. 26 in success rate, No. 10 in IsoPPP (explosiveness), and No. 32 in points per scoring opportunity, the Sooners’ defense ranks No. 98, No. 51, and No. 101 in those categories. Kansas is adept at getting into the ball into space and forcing one-on-one tackle attempts. The Sooners rank No. 125 in tackle rate.
Kansas is a live underdog, even with Bean under center, and even if Gabriel is a-go. If the tide turns and Gabriel is ruled out, load up on KU.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
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