College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: East Carolina vs. UCF (2022)
Let’s take a look at the College Football Week 8 odds, picks, and predictions for: East Carolina vs. UCF.
And check out our other College Football Week 8 game previews:
- Tulsa vs. Temple
- UAB vs. Western Kentucky
- Syracuse vs. Clemson
- UNLV vs. Notre Dame
- Texas vs. Oklahoma State
- Ole Miss vs. LSU
- Purdue vs. Wisconsin
- Mississippi State vs. Alabama
- Minnesota vs. Penn State
- Washington vs. California
- UCLA vs. Oregon
- Rutgers vs. Indiana
- New Mexico vs. Fresno State
- Louisiana-Monroe vs. Army
- Navy vs. Houston
- Ohio vs. Northern Illinois
- Vanderbilt vs. Missouri
- Hawaii vs. Colorado State
- Duke vs. Miami
- FIU vs. Charlotte
- Wake Forest vs. Boston College
- Ohio State vs. Iowa
- Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>
College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Prediction: East Carolina vs. UCF
Despite my system seeing this one as more of a coin-flip, and despite knowing the market is against me, I’m following a personal conviction in taking the points with ECU at home.
I’m lower on UCF than others. And probably higher on ECU. Second-order wins tell a similar story. UCF, 5-2, has 4.5 (-0.5) second-order wins. ECU, 4-3, has 4.7 (+0.7). In other words, ECU is closer to a 5-2 quality team, while UCF is arguably a 4-3 quality team. ECU has played the (slightly) harder schedule to this point.
More than that, ECU matches up very well. UCF’s offense sputters if it isn’t running the ball well. ECU’s run defense is awesome, ranking No. 22 in success rate and No. 4 in explosion. ECU’s pass defense is terrible, but UCF isn’t likely to take advantage.
On the other side, the strength of UCF’s defense is its run defense. The Knights rank top-3 in the nation in preventing successful running plays. But ECU’s offense doesn’t care about rushing efficiency. It is built around its passing game, and generating explosive runs (No. 8) once you start thinning your boxes to try and prevent that.
The bugaboo of UCF’s good run defense is allowing explosive runs (No. 125). And UCF’s pass defense isn’t nearly as strong as its run defense. ECU’s offense matches up exceedingly well against that profile.
I lean under, but the ability of each offense to generate explosive plays prevents me from making that an official play.
The pick: ECU +5
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