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College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Long Shot Bets (2023)

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We’re off to another great stretch of College Football in Week 8. There are some marquee matchups, one of which I’ll highlight here. One of the best places to find value in the weekly card is to look at some of the longshot teams that have a solid chance at winning outright.

Here are a few of my favorite longshot picks for this slate:

Best College Football Week 8 Long Shot Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+215) at Arkansas Razorbacks (-6)

Neither of these teams has won an SEC game this season, so you know these are two flawed squads. Arkansas surprised a few with their three-point loss to Alabama last week. I’m unsure how much we can take from that final score, as Arkansas trailed 24-6 toward the end of the third quarter. The Crimson Tide dominated in the box score, outgaining the Razorbacks 415-250 in total yards, and was able to move the ball with ease.

Mississippi State has had a strong offense this year with QB Will Rogers, but his status is a big question mark after getting hurt in the Bulldogs’ last game against Western Michigan. Rogers’ status is baked into this line. He hasn’t been ruled out, and in typical College Football fashion, we probably won’t know until Saturday. If he plays, this reasoning is simple. Rogers is a strong quarterback and runs this 34th-ranked SP+ offense. If he can’t play, they’ll look to Vanderbilt walk-on transfer QB Mike Wright. Wright isn’t the passer Rogers is, but he adds an element with his feet.

The Razorbacks are on a five-game losing streak. It’s not as if this team really had SEC Championship aspirations, but they hoped for more than this. You have to wonder if they are up for a letdown game after the slim loss to Alabama. I like Mississippi State’s chances with Wright, but I love them if Rogers is cleared to play this week.

Eastern Michigan Eagles (+340) at Northern Illinois Huskies (-12)

It’s not quite mid-week MAC-tion, but there are few conferences better at delivering longshot winners than the MAC. Northern Illinois has impressed in the last few weeks with a win over Ohio and a blowout over lowly Akron. What have they really done well? They aren’t very explosive, passing or running. The win over Ohio is nice, but the Bobcats blew a halftime lead by turning the ball over three times in the second half. That’s just one example of what you can get in the MAC on any given week.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have a pretty putrid offense. They rank just 128th in SP+, but that’s not much worse than Northern Illinois at 104th. Both teams rank about the same defensively at 87th and 89th, respectively. Poor weather isn’t expected, but it’ll be a gray, chilly Midwest Fall day. The total is at 45.5, and there’s steam on the under. That indicates this one should be a slugfest, and Eastern Michigan is comfortable in the muck.

Is Northern Illinois better than Eastern Michigan? Probably. Should Northern Illinois be this big of a favorite in what looks to be a low-scoring affair? Of course not. Anything is possible in the MAC, and both teams will be fighting to keep pace with Toledo in the MAC West. At this big of a number, you’re getting great value on the underdog Eastern Michigan Eagles.

Duke Blue Devils (+480) at Florida State Seminoles (-13.5)

I’ll get straight to the point:  QB Riley Leonard of Duke is day-to-day. If I were a betting man (hold for laughs), I would bet he plays in this primetime matchup. It’s no longer a secret how effective Duke has been the last two years with Leonard running the offense. They’re one fourth-and-16 conversion from Notre Dame away from being 6-0, but they still are undefeated in the ACC.

Last week, Leonard was out, but that didn’t stop the Blue Devils. They held NC State to just three points and scored 24 by moving the ball on the ground with relative ease. Florida State’s biggest weakness defensively is stopping the run, as their EPA per play run defense is 111th in the country. This strong Duke run game should be able to move the ball and even control possession when they have the ball.

On the other side, I like this Duke defense. They’ve shown up big time in big games. They were able to stymie a strong Notre Dame offense for much of the game and made Clemson look largely incompetent. They haven’t played a murderer’s row of offensive powerhouses, but they haven’t allowed more than two touchdowns to any team this season. If they can keep Florida State out of the endzone and control the ball on the ground offensively, this game could be another huge upset on head coach Mike Elko’s belt, no matter who is playing at quarterback.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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