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College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (2022)

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We’re here to get you ready for another loaded college football slate of action. Let’s take a look at our best College Football Week 8 odds, picks, and predictions for Saturday.

And check out our other College Football Week 8 game previews:

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>

College Football Week 8 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday

Rutgers (-3) vs. Indiana

Rutgers was banged-up earlier this season but comes in off a bye week that it used to get healthier. For the first time this season, Rutgers may have their top-two QBs – Noah Vedral and Gavin Wimsatt – healthy. Good timing with Indiana’s horrific pass defense coming to town.

Rutgers also used that bye to transition between offensive play-callers. OC Sean Gleeson was fired after the last game, with TE coach Nunzio Campanile promoted to replace him. It can only help. Rutgers’ attack had grown stale and predictable, unfortunate bugaboos when you’re also outmanned in talent.

The latter won’t be the case on Saturday. Indiana’s 3-4 record is fool’s gold. The Hoosiers’ two wins against FBS teams were both come-from-behind flukes in games they were soundly outplayed (combined 36% win expectancy between the games). In the win against the FCS team, Idaho, Indiana trailed 10-0 at halftime.

The Hoosiers’ second-order win total of 1.5 (-1.5) is more indicative of the team’s quality. As is Rutgers’ 3.2 (+0.2). Both teams have played a top-25 SOS.

Indiana’s defense is bad. It has played above its head because opponents have been unsustainably unlucky when deep in IU’s territory (No. 34 in points per scoring opportunity allowed).

Indiana likely used its season-allotment of luck up in those first three games, and Rutgers HC Greg Schiano is typically money in this spot, going a career 10-3 ATS (76.9%) on 11-plus days of rest.

The pick: Rutgers -3

#13 Wake Forest (-20.5) vs. Boston College

Let’s get back on the saddle by leaning on one of the best offenses in the country behind the Deamon Deacons!  We weren’t sure what would happen with Hartman as the season started, but he returned in Week 2, has since had a 16:1 TD-INT ratio, and has led the Demon Deacons to at least 31 points in all five games. They have gone over 40 points three times. Boston College has given up at least 31 points since entering conference play three weeks ago and has only scored over 14 points once in that stretch.

Boston College is one of the more one-sided offenses in the country. WR Zay Flowers is the big playmaker for the Eagles, but he’s really all they have. Flowers has caught 5 of the 11 touchdowns and has been targeted on 32% of BC’s pass attempts this season, which is great, but they have no one else to go to. The run game for Boston College ranks 130th of 131 schools averaging just under 70 yards per game, and the second leading pass catcher (TE George Takacs) didn’t play with an undisclosed injury in their last game, and his status is up in the air for this one.

Wake Forest will put up points on anyone, even with their defense being a bit hit or miss, but I’m leaning on Wake in this game because of their pass rush. According to PFF, Wake is the #1 rated pass rush defense, and BC has allowed 22 sacks this season. There is just so much stacked against BC in this game that I have to be on Wake. This feels like a 42-17 type of game to me.

The pick: Wake Forest -20.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

LSU (-1.5) vs. Ole Miss | u68

Despite its undefeated record, Ole Miss has not looked impressive against a weak No. 70 SOS. Particularly the offense, which can no longer throw with impunity.

While Mississippi’s offense has been a slight disappointment, its defense has exceeded expectations (No. 16 SP+). The Rebels are now running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive snaps.

Ole Miss will lean even more heavily into that because of how good LSU is at defending the pass. The Rebels played four soft opponents in OOC play. In the three SEC games – against Kentucky, Vandy, and Auburn… not a murderer’s row – Mississippi QB Jaxson Dart coughed up four interceptions. Dart averaged 171.5 YPG passing in the games against Kentucky and Auburn on 50% completions.

LSU’s offense is extremely straightforward, with QB Jayden Daniels soaking up all the usage. No player on the roster has 50 rushing attempts except for Daniels. Daniels has 90. The Rebels’ front-seven should succeed in slowing him down. Ole Miss also boasts a strong pass defense, likewise incentivizing LSU to run even more than usual.

So we’re going to see a ton of rushing attempts and an ever-running clock. And when each offense advances beyond midfield, it’s going to meet resistance. Ole Miss and LSU rank No. 49 and No. 53, respectively, in points per scoring opportunity. Conversely, their defenses rank No. 23 and No. 11, respectively, in the same categories.

My system believes we’re getting an incredible 17 points of value on the under. And the game script would seem to facilitate that, with strong defenses on both sides opposing run-heavy offenses, and potential TD opportunities in the red-zone negated into FG attempts.

The pick(s): LSU -1.5 | LSU-Mississippi UNDER 68

Ohio State (-29.5) vs. Iowa & OVER 49.5

I understand that the defense for Iowa has been playing at a historically great level so far. The only team to score more than 10 points on them was Michigan, and that was only 27. Iowa has been grinding up opponents and spitting them out on the defensive side, but they are offering next to nothing on offense, and that’s why I’m taking Ohio State and the over.

Sure, Iowa has been putting the brakes on every offense they face, but let’s not forget about the Ohio State offense smashing every defense put in front of them. Outside of the opening game against Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points on each opponent. There are a few injury concerns for Ohio State going into this week. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, considered the #1 WR prospect coming into the year, will play but is most likely less than 100%, and RBs Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson are both dealing with undisclosed injuries. I still have confidence in the OSU offense because of the crazy depth of this team. Seven of their eight receiving options on their two-deep depth chart were rated 95 or higher by 247, and they rank #1 in overall offense and receiving according to PFF. Third-string freshman RB Dallan Hayden is a 4-Star recruit and already has handled at least eight carries per game in the last four.

Iowa is 2nd in scoring, 3rd in passing, and 21st in rushing defense statistically but ranks below 100 in every offensive category. I haven’t even mentioned that Ohio State’s defense ranks top 10 in all three of those defensive categories, and that’s really where the difference is for me in this game. If Ohio State comes out swinging with a few scoring drives, they are going to make an already bad offense even more one-dimensional while trying to play catch up. The headlines are all about the best offense in the nation against the best defense in the nation, but this is a lopsided game on the other side, and I think Ohio State dominates both ways in this one.

The pick: Ohio State -29.5 (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook) and Over 49.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

East Carolina (+5) vs. UCF
ATL: ECU -4.4

Despite my system seeing this one as more of a coin-flip, and despite knowing the market is against me, I’m following a personal conviction in taking the points with ECU at home.

I’m lower on UCF than others. And probably higher on ECU. Second-order wins tell a similar story. UCF, 5-2, has 4.5 (-0.5) second-order wins. ECU, 4-3, has 4.7 (+0.7). In other words, ECU is closer to a 5-2 quality team, while UCF is arguably a 4-3 quality team. ECU has played the (slightly) harder schedule to this point.

More than that, ECU matches up very well. UCF’s offense sputters if it isn’t running the ball well. ECU’s run defense is awesome, ranking No. 22 in success rate and No. 4 in explosion. ECU’s pass defense is terrible, but UCF isn’t likely to take advantage.

On the other side, the strength of UCF’s defense is its run defense. The Knights rank top-3 in the nation in preventing successful running plays. But ECU’s offense doesn’t care about rushing efficiency. It is built around its passing game, and generating explosive runs (No. 8) once you start thinning your boxes to try and prevent that.

The bugaboo of UCF’s good run defense is allowing explosive runs (No. 125). And UCF’s pass defense isn’t nearly as strong as its run defense. ECU’s offense matches up exceedingly well against that profile.

I lean under, but the ability of each offense to generate explosive plays prevents me from making that an official play.

The pick: ECU +5

Georgia Southern (+2.5) @ Old Dominion & OVER 67

This game is being bet on the Old Dominion side, and I think the main factors are that they are at home, Georgia Southern is coming off a big win against a ranked team, and this is a perfect ‘let-down’ spot. Those are facts that I can’t argue with, but I will say that ODU is in a little bit of a ‘let-down’ spot themselves after beating Coastal Carolina by 4 touchdowns in their own house after coming in as 11-point underdogs!

Last week I mentioned how Georgia Southern is in the process of switching the offense to an air raid under new HC Clay Helton, and everything clicked in their dismantling of James Madison. Kyle Vantrease ripped apart a top-15 scoring defense with 578 yards passing, and I think he might have unlocked the potential of this offense. Of course, the passing attack has been heavy for Southern, but 64 attempts were the most this season. Even though he’s thrown at least 39 times in every game, his highest previous total was 409 yards. Vantrease getting hot and the passing game clicking is not good news for the ODU pass defense that ranks 117th against the pass so far this season.  

Georgia Southern may have a powerful attacking offense, but the defense will keep their opponents in the game and points on the board. The low total in any game for Georgia Southern this season was 56, which was in a loss against UAB in which the Eagles only put up 21 points which were also their lowest output so far. Georgia Southern is 105th in scoring defense, giving up over 30 points per game on average, and has had three games go over 70 points. Old Dominion isn’t kicking the doors down offensively by any means. Still, they are coming off their best offensive performance after putting up a season-high 49 points against Coastal Carolina (which was the most they’ve given up all season). 

Old Dominion put up the big total behind a 256-yard rushing day from RB Blake Watson, and Georgia Southern is ranked 127th against the run this season. These teams look primed to put up some big points and battle a close one out. I’ll take the good passing team against the bad passing defense over the same thing on the rushing side. Give me the Eagles and the over!

The pick: Georgia Southern +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook) and Over 67 (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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