Bogman’s College Football Week 9 Best Bets & Predictions (2022)
Hot off a solid college football gambling performance, Scott Bogman returns with his Week 9 best bets and predictions.
Week 8 Record: 6-4
2022 Season Record: 48-32
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>
#3 Tennessee (-12.5) vs #19 Kentucky & OVER 63.5
The Over in this game is my favorite play of the week. Tennessee has put up the most points that the defense they face has given up in every single game they’ve played. Tennessee has put up 52 on Alabama, a defense that hadn’t allowed more than 26 points to anyone else, and 40 on LSU, who had previously given up no more than 23 (35 the high since against Florida). Tennesse is the only team averaging over 50 PPG in the country, is well-balanced with the No. 2 passing and No. 24 rushing offenses and is top 20 in pace of play. Tennessee is also pretty rough on defense, giving up an average of 30.5 PPG to P5 opponents, and is 130th against the pass, giving up and average of 329.7 yards per game. The rushing defense is good but it’s because teams need to play catch-up after Tennessee has run up the score.
Kentucky isn’t a joke, and I think the betting public agrees with that at least early in the week, as the majority of cash has been placed on the Wildcats. Kentucky has been strong on defense. They have held every opponent to under 25 points and are currently ninth in scoring defense, 14th against the pass and 28th against the run. Kentucky has also had the ball way more than their opponents, holding the ball on average for just over 34 minutes per game. The narrative for an under play is also fueled by the Wildcats offense’s slow pace, 104th in the nation, at 66.3 plays per game.
The ‘coup de grace’ for the betting Kentucky and the under is probably that they are coming off a bye week AND this is a potential look-ahead spot for Tennessee with them facing Georgia next week. I don’t think Tennessee can afford to look ahead to anyone, and they should know that. The Vols haven’t been ranked inside the top 10 this late in the season since 2001, and HC Josh Heupel has navigated through long winning streaks in the past at UCF. Tennessee has done all the scoring while ranking 121st in time of possession, so it’s not like they need to possess the ball for a long time to put up points.
In general, the great offensive team will break the great defensive team. The rules are made for offenses to score, and from the high school level on up, the best players are placed on offense. We saw this exact scenario play out last week with Ohio State drubbing Iowa. I am particularly interested to see Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt, who leads the nation in receiving TDs, against this secondary. Hyatt mainly plays out of the slot, so freshman Kentucky saftey Alex Afari will have his hands full. That matchup could be the main deciding factor in this game. I think Tennessee is once again going to leave as the top-scoring opponent as they have against every defense they have faced. Once Tennesse takes the lead, they can take advantage on defense, putting pressure on a line that has already allowed 26 sacks (120th in the country). Tennessee wins this one big on the back of the best offense in the country.
Arizona State (-13.5) vs Colorado
Arizona State is in the midst of a program rebuild, and it’s not a secret they aren’t a dominant team in the PAC-12. The Sun Devils are statistically below average in all three major offensive and defensive categories (scoring, passing, rushing) and only grade out above average in passing, receiving, and pass rush grade, according to PFF. The Devils are a just below-average team that has played a little better since Herm Edwards was let go. Last week they were only able to put up 14 points against Stanford, which made interim HC Shaun Aguano take over the offensive play calling for this week. Aguano is known for leading local Arizona High School Chandler to four State titles and has the backing of many local coaches and Alumni. I expect everything to be on the table this week, which includes going from starting QB Emory Jones to the backup Trenton Bourguet, who came in against Washington when Jones went down and led the Devils to a victory.
I understand that betting on a below-average offense that could make a QB change doesn’t sound very appealing, but we are betting against Colorado more than on Arizona State. Colorado ranks lower than Arizona State in five of those six major statistics we talked about before. The only one they beat ASU in is passing defense because no one needs to pass on them in the second half. Colorado got their win the week after HC Karl Dorrell was fired in a 20-13 win over Cal. Yet, in every other game, they have played this season, they have lost by at least 23 points and are dropping games on average by 30 points. In terms of PFF grades, Colorado ranks dead last in overall defense, run defense and defensive coverage. It only ranks higher than 100 in pass blocking (and the passing is 120).
The only way I see ASU choking this game away would be on penalties and turnovers. Arizona State is the sixth most penalized team in the nation, and Colorado is fairly disciplined but loves turning the ball over with a -7 TO margin so far this season. Colorado has switched QBs, fired their HC and played disciplined football and still has been crushed six out of seven times. Arizona State is in a down, program-changing year that could take them a while to crawl out of, but they are much better than this Colorado team. This down Arizona State team should be at least two TDs better than this Colorado team, even on the road. Give me the Devils and lay the points!
#17 Illinois (-7.5) @ Nebraska AND UNDER 50.5
I may have been against the public on Tennessee and the Over play in that game, but for the ASU game and this game, I’m adding to the public cause! Early in the week the overwhelming amount of cash has been on the Under in this Big-10 matchup and I agree wholeheartedly! Illinois is 2-4-1 playing towards an Over this season, has not had a total higher than 44 in any game they have played this season and will most likely control this game from start to finish.
Nebraska is coming off a bye (as is Illinois) and looked good in a six-point loss to Purdue two weeks ago, as they put up 37 points, which was a season-high for them against a P5 opponent. Nebraska is averaging just under 30 PPG, coming mainly from a top-40 passing offense and transfer QB Casey Thompson. Too bad Illinois is the No. 1 scoring defense and No. 2 passing and rushing defense in the nation. If we move over to PFF grades, Illinois is third against the pass and fifth overall. This is simply not a good matchup for Nebraska offensively.
The cherry on top of the lopsided matchup is it’s just as bad on the other side of the ball for Nebraska, if not worse. Illinois is averaging just under 200 rushing yards per game, and Nebraska’s run defense is 115th in the country, allowing just over 190 yards per game. Illinois RB Chase Brown (+5000 to win the Heisman) is leading the nation in rushing yards and should add a big chunk to that total here. Nebraska and Illinois are only separated by one turnover lost, but Illinois is +4 while Nebraska is -3. Anyway it’s sliced, this is not a good matchup for the Huskers. Offense over defense if they are equal, but these teams are not on the same level. I think this will be a one-sided Illinois win, and as I stated when the breakdown began, Illinois hasn’t had a game go over 44 total points, and they have played worse teams than Nebraska. Illini win a 31-17 type of game that has just enough to thread the needle on laying the points and keeping our Under!
Other Bets I Like:
- Iowa vs Northwestern UNDER 37.5
- Texas A&M vs #15 Ole Miss UNDER 55
- USC -15.5 @ Arizona
- Iowa State vs Oklahoma UNDER 56
- Oregon -17 @ Cal
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
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