College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets (2022)
We’re onto Week 9 as the calendar threatens to turn to November. Our longshot picks are riding a hot streak. Big upset wins by Duke and FIU improved our record to 10-15 on the year, but since we’re taking ML dogs that are +200 or longer, we’re getting great ROI. Let’s keep this hot streak rolling with the Week 9 slate.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 8 College Football Power Rankings >>
Miami OH at Akron +8.5
This is our last weekend before mid-week MACtion begins. To sate our palate, we have this matchup between two of the worst offenses in the country. Miami and Akron come in ranked 122nd and 123rd in offensive SP+, respectively.
Akron has yet to beat an FBS opponent, but they loaded their schedule with some solid non-conference opponents. Since MAC play began, they’ve been competitive, losing one-score games to Bowling Green, Central Michigan and Kent State. They’ve been able to score, amassing 27.5 points per game in conference play. Miami’s defense has been solid, but they rate out the same as Bowling Green and Central Michigan by EPA per play. Akron should be able to continue to find success offensively.
Miami, meanwhile, has not had the same success on offense once MAC season started. They won’t face much resistance against an Akron defense that has struggled to stop anyone they’ve played, but their offense is challenged enough that it may not matter.
Akron has shown an ability to keep these conference games close. With a Miami opponent that won’t pose a huge threat offensively, this is an excellent opportunity for Akron to pull out their first FBS win of the season.
Pick: Akron ML (+275)
TCU at West Virginia +7.5
The Mountaineers host the 7th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs in Morgantown on Saturday. TCU has been one of the most impressive stories of the early season. They’ve relied on an explosive offense ranking sixth in SP+ through eight weeks. Their defense only checks in at 56th in SP+, and they’ve had some fortune in Big 12 play so far. All four conference opponents have seen their starting quarterbacks leave the game early with injury.
The offense has played well for the Mountaineers, ranking 35th in SP+. If JT Daniels can limit turnovers here, West Virginia can put up points to stick around with a TCU squad that has been playing with fire for the last few weeks.
West Virginia has had their ups and downs this season, but this is a big spot. Sitting currently at 3-4 after a disappointing performance against Texas Tech, this is an excellent opportunity to pick up a signature win on the season and move one step closer to bowl eligibility.
It will be Homecoming weekend in Morgantown, and solid home crowd advantage could be the final piece West Virginia needs to spoil TCU’s undefeated season.
Pick: West Virginia ML (+220)
Northwestern +11 at Iowa
Last week I talked about finding treasure in the trash for the Charlotte-FIU game. This game between Big Ten foes is a similar handicap, but for different reasons.
This game opened with a total of 35.5, which is one of the lowest in college football this year. There’s a reason these teams are expected to struggle to put up points. Both teams sit in the 100s for their offensive SP+ ranking.
Iowa has scored just four offensive touchdowns in five games against Power 5 opponents, and though they’ve played some stout defenses on their schedule, it is mostly a product of the offense that is unable to move the ball in the air or on the ground.
Northwestern is not some barn burner on the offensive end, but they’ve at least shown an ability to finish drives against Power 5 competition. The Wildcats will need to avoid turnovers in this game if they want a chance to win against an Iowa defense that lives off of them.
Iowa cannot score enough offensively to pull away in this game. If Northwestern can hold onto the ball and make a few plays to get into the end zone, they’ll have a great shot to pull off a win on the road.
Pick: Northwestern ML (+330)
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