College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Under-the-Radar Plays (2022)
Week 8 was another winning week, as we went 2-1, with the lone exception being UAB losing by the hook. We’ll try to keep the winning streak going as we close out October. And we’ll begin our Week 9 under the radars play column with a couple of weekday games.
2022 season record: 17-11-1
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-1), Total 42.5
While we wait for the beginning of weekday MACtion next week, we’ll start with a Thursday night appetizer from the Sun Belt. Both Louisiana and Southern Miss are 4-3 and desperately need a win to get one step closer to bowl eligibility.
The difference in this game will be a Golden Eagles’ defense that’s proven to be legitimate this season. Southern Mississippi boasts the 23rd-best run defense in the nation, while the Louisiana offense ranks outside the top 75 in both rushing and passing.
Offensively, Southern Miss isn’t a pretty operation, but it could have success running the ball against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who have surrendered 489 yards on the ground in their three losses.
It isn’t the prettiest start to our Week 9 betting card. But back Southern Mississippi to ride their defense to a win at home.
The pick: Southern Miss -1 (-110)
East Carolina Pirates at BYU Cougars (-3), Total 62
Friday night features an intriguing matchup as ECU exits American Conference play to travel to Provo for a battle with the Cougars. BYU’s once-promising season has gone off the rails. The Cougs have lost three straight games and are coming off a 41-14 loss at Liberty. Keep in mind, BYU closed as 7-point favorites. The Pirates, meanwhile, are an experienced group that can secure a bowl appearance with a victory.
BYU’s problem is pretty simple: it can’t stop a nosebleed. The Cougars rank 108th in scoring defense and 117th in run defense. That should be problematic against an East Carolina rushing attack that averages 163 yards per game, spearheaded by stud tailback Keaton Mitchell. ECU quarterback Holton Ahlers enters this game red-hot and should have his way against a BYU secondary that’s 114th in EPA per pass allowed.
The key to this game will be the Pirates’ secondary against BYU QB Jaren Hall. ECU is giving up 280 passing yards per game, but they limit the explosive plays that Hall and this BYU passing game rely on. If the Pirates contain Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua, they could easily pull off this small upset.
The pick: ECU +3 (-105)
Arizona State Sun Devils (-13) at Colorado Buffaloes, Total 46.5
Arizona State is coming off a 15-14 loss to Stanford in which they deserved a much better result. The Sun Devils averaged nearly six yards per play and held Stanford to just 4.8 yards per play. They held the Cardinal to five field goals as well. The difference came on third down, where Stanford went 9-of-19, while ASU went 4-of-13. The Sun Devils also committed eight penalties and missed a 42-yard field goal in the first half that might have been the difference.
Now, ASU is laying nearly two touchdowns at lowly Colorado. The Buffs followed up their resounding upset victory over Cal as 15-point dogs with a 33-point loss at Oregon State.
Neither of these teams holds a massive advantage over the other, although Arizona State is statistically better in every major category except for pass defense. However, motivational factors could be at play. The Sun Devils have covered three straight and three of four since firing coach Herm Edwards. The Buffs clearly aren’t overly motivated considering their lifeless effort last week.
Laying 13 with a team like Arizona State is always risky, but they could be coming at a discount after last week’s bizarre loss.
The pick: Arizona State -13 (-115), play to -14
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