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College Football Week 9 Picks & Predictions (2022)

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We narrowly missed out on hitting our round-robin parlay as ULM, unfortunately, fell apart after going up 17-7. Purdue never showed up against Wisconsin, and Utah State couldn’t get over the hump in the second half.

Great news, though, we did go 5-4 ATS with three ML underdog winners (Buffalo, East Carolina, and Liberty). Liberty and East Carolina led by double digits for most of their games, and Buffalo came storming back in the 4th quarter. Favorites went 2-1 ATS (2-1 ML). Miami (OH) has let us down in back-to-back weeks and will need to reevaluate its profile going forward.

This brings our ATS record to 21-14-1 with ten ML underdog winners.

Check out Thor Nystrom’s Week 9 Best Bets >>

Overview

The thought process for anyone reading this for the first time is simple: We target teams with a top-30 rush rate. We will look at six main advanced defensive statistics to measure how successful the matchup is: Defensive Stuff Rate, Defensive Line Yards, Defensive Rush Success Rate, Defensive Power Success Rate, Defensive IsoPPP (explosiveness), and PFF Rush Defense.

There are several angles at play:

  • An underdog with a high rush rate vs. an opponent who is below average in the four main defensive rush categories. They will have the opportunity to limit possessions and control the game script.
  • A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent who is stout against the run. They will be forced to employ a game plan that does not fit their overall identity. A favorite’s plan B strategy will never be as dangerous as its preferred method of offense.
  • An underdog with a top-30 rush rate vs. a stout defense. The favorite in this scenario has the opportunity to blow a game out of reach and leave the underdog behind the proverbial 8-ball.
  • A favorite with a top-30 rush rate vs. an opponent that is lackluster in the aforementioned categories. In this scenario, we prefer the favorite to be, at most, a 10-point favorite.

The reason for this thinking is high rush rates will always lead to fewer possessions and fewer overall points. The overall margin for error will be slimmer. put this allows us to simplify the handicapping perspective and focus on unbalanced teams. Here’s a summary of the teams we are looking for.

  • Underdogs with a top-30 rush rate vs. below-average defenses
  • Underdogs with a stout defense vs. a top-30 rush rate favorite
  • Favorites with a stout defense vs. a top 30 rush rate underdog
  • Favorites with a top-30 rush rate (not greater than -10) vs. a below-average defense

Glossary

  • Stuff Rate: tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage
  • Def Line Yards: Yards directly influenced by the defensive line
  • Def Rush Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd and 4th down.
  • Rush IsoPPP: Explosive rush plays allowed (15 yards or more)
  • Def Power Success Rate: the percentage of running plays on 3rd or 4th down from 2 yards or less in which an offense either converted into a 1st down or scored a TD. 1st and 2nd down and goal plays within the 2-yard line are also included.
  • PFF Rush Defense: PFF film-graded metric

Let’s dive into the ten games we will target this week.

Toledo @ Eastern Michigan

Toledo

  • 21st Rush Rate

Eastern Michigan

  • 131st Def Stuff Rate
  • 90th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 4th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 119th Def Line Yards
  • 112th Def Power Success Rate
  • 25th PFF Rush Def

Notre Dame @ Syracuse

Notre Dame

  • 18th Rush Rate

Syracuse

  • 122nd Def Stuff Rate
  • 114th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 28th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 114th Def Line Yards
  • 70th Def Power Success Rate
  • 76th PFF Rush Def

Rutgers @ Minnesota

Rutgers

  • 28th Rush Rate

Minnesota

  • 104th Def Stuff Rate
  • 31st Def Rush Success Rate
  • 74th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 91st Def Line Yards
  • 130th Power Success Rate
  • 57th PFF Rush Def

Minnesota

  • 16th Rush Rate

Rutgers

  • 17th Defensive Stuff Rate
  • 33rd Def Rush Success Rate
  • 14th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 8th Def Line Yards
  • 7th Power Success Rate
  • 26th PFF Rush Def

New Mexico State @ UMASS

UMASS

  • 4th Rush Rate

New Mexico State

  • 99th Def Stuff Rate
  • 117th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 25th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 87th Def Line Yards
  • 90th Power Success Rate
  • 118th PFF Rush Def

Illinois @ Nebraska

Illinois

  • 26th Rush Rate

Nebraska

  • 72nd Def Stuff Rate
  • 121st Def Rush Success Rate
  • 56th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 78th Def Line Yards
  • 68th Def Power Success Rate
  • 96th PFF Rush Def

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M

Ole Miss

  • 7th Rush Rate

Texas A&M

  • 66th Def Stuff Rate
  • 89th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 31st Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 64th Def Line Yards
  • 98th Def Power Success Rate
  • 121st PFF Rush Def

Pittsburgh @ North Carolina

Pittsburgh

  • 31st Rush Rate

North Carolina

  • 106th Def Stuff Rate
  • 126th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 15th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 112th Def Line Yards
  • 91st Def Power Success Rate
  • 104th PFF Rush Def

San Diego State @ Fresno State

San Diego State

  • 23rd Rush Rate

Fresno State

  • 39th Def Stuff Rate
  • 77th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 54th Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 96th Def Line Yards
  • 90th Power Success Rate
  • 129th PFF Rush Def

Wyoming @ Hawaii

Wyoming

  • 17th Rush Rate

Hawaii

  • 100th Def Stuff Rate
  • 110th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 71st Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 123rd Def Line Yards
  • 46th Power Success Rate
  • 95th PFF Rush Def

Coastal Carolina @ Marshall

Marshall

  • 12th Rush Rate

Coastal Carolina

  • 91st Def Stuff Rate
  • 74th Def Rush Success Rate
  • 92nd Def Rush IsoPPP
  • 102nd Def Line Yards
  • 97th Def Power Success Rate
  • 91st PFF Rush Def

The Bets

Here’s the breakdown of the ten games we are going to target this week

  • Notre Dame (+3), Rutgers (+14.5), UMASS (+2.5), San Diego State (+8.5), and Pittsburgh (+3.5) are the five underdogs that are top-30 in rush rates
  • Toledo (-6.5), Illinois (-7.5), Marshall (-2.5), Ole Miss (-2.5), and Wyoming (-10.5) are the five favorites who are top-30 in rush rates.

This is an intriguing setup this week as we have teams we have yet to target come into the fold. Notre Dame, Rutgers, and Ole Miss are the most interesting spots to me.

Notre Dame has been underwhelming, to say the least, and Syracuse has been an ACC darling that almost beat Clemson last week. The biggest red flag to me is that Syracuse ranks bottom 30 in Stuff Rate, Success Rate, and Def Line Yards. If Syracuse cannot force negative plays, then Notre Dame could easily take over the game’s pace and run the ball 45 to 50 times.

Rutgers falls into two categories: they are a top-30 rush-rate team with a stout defense facing a rush-heavy opponent. Simply put, Rutgers getting 14.5 points is egregious.

Lastly, Ole Miss will not be in this column often, as most of the SEC is solid against the run. Texas A&M, on the other hand, is somewhat suspect in certain areas. Ranking poorly in Success Rate, Power Success Rate, and PFF Rush Def is not a good combination when playing an uptempo rush-heavy team like Ole Miss. This means Ole Miss will have a plethora of success in short-down situations and will likely ramp up the fourth-down attempts if needed.

This week we will break away from the round-robin parlay and go with a couple of ML parlays with a combination of our underdogs and favorites.

ML Underdog Parlay

  • Pittsburgh +130
  • Notre Dame +115

This parlay pays +395 vs. taking the short spread and getting anywhere from +250 to +260.

ML Favorite and Underdog Parlay

  • Rutgers +14.5
  • San Diego State +8.5
  • Marshall ML
  • Ole Miss ML

This parlay pays +975 and gives you solid value on four teams with an established offensive identity.

Remember, you can interchange the underdogs or change the favorites to differentiate the bet.  This is just an example of a way to attack it.

As always, thanks for reading, and good luck with all your bets this weekend!

Prop Bet Analyzer: View top-rated props and historical prop performance by player >>

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