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Colts vs. Dolphins NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)

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Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Colts vs. Dolphins.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week X Betting Primer>>

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides:

  • The favorites have won 15 of the Colts' last 18 games.
  • The Colts are 1-1 ATS as favorites this season and more than 70% ATS as an underdog (2-2 overall).
  • The Colts are 7-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
  • The Dolphins have lost seven of their last eight games.
  • Miami has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • Miami is below 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 2-6 overall since 2023.
  • Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted back to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 win against the Patriots, they came back from a first-half deficit.
  • The Dolphins have lost their last nine road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Dolphins have lost 12 of their last 13 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Six of the last eight Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seven of the Colts' last nine games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Only twice has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (seven starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, six of the Dolphins’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

There are major question marks on both sides in this matchup. Who will start for the Colts at quarterback? Colts bettors would like to see another week of Joe Flacco. However, Anthony Richardson was close to playing last week and is already a full participant in practice. Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Monday that Richardson will start Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, barring a setback.

As for Miami...is there any hope for this offense with Tyler Huntley? Although nobody would care to admit it, Huntley improved from his first start to his second against the Patriots, and coming off a bye week should allow him to progress in this offensive system.

And this Colts defense is just so bad. With two weeks to prepare and a healthy stable of running backs, I'm optimistic we can at least get a semblance of a normal Dolphins offensive performance in this spot.

Especially on the ground, where De'Von Achane is progressing through the concussion protocol. He was a full participant at practice on Thursday.

Miami needs to get this rushing attack going. Per Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins have generated -110 rushing yards over expected on designed runs this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL, after posting the 2nd-most (+408) last season. Achane has recorded -78 rushing yards over expected while forcing a 23.6% missed tackle rate this season, compared to +279 rushing yards over expected and a 35.6% missed tackle force rate last season. The Colts’ defense has allowed a league-high 800 expected rushing yards on designed runs this season, but only +34 rushing yards over expected, 18th-most in the NFL.

Miami's offense might never get "right" until Tua Tagovailoa returns, but this is a great spot for them to at least get back on track.

This matchup is between two of the brightest offensive minds in the NFL, so I like the over at 43.5 points. Miami's defense is nothing special, and they benefited from layup matchups against the Titans/Patriots - although their run defense was exposed. The Colts backfield is banged up between Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon, so we could see a healthy dose of Tyler Goodson - who looked explosive last week.

As for the sides, I want to see where the spread settles closer to Sunday. Traditionally, you want to bet on the Colts as favorites and fade the Dolphins as underdogs. But once we get 100% confirmation about Richardson starting, I think we might see some Dolphins love. That will give us a better number on the Colts.

Props:

In the Week 5 Dolphins game, Tyreek Hill was the top target with nine (29% Target share), catching six passes for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch. Hill was targeted two times in the red zone but had no catches or touchdowns. He came close to a TD but was ruled out of bounds. It was Hill’s best performance of the season since Tagovailoa’s injury. Given that I think we see the Dolphins offense bounce back against this bad Colts defense, I am taking over Hill’s receptions prop this week. All six of the closest comparable WRs to Hill this season that have faced the Colts have exceeded their projected receptions.

Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted five times, catching three passes for 35 yards and one TD on a jump ball from Joe Flacco in Week 6. He was not limited despite entering the game with a back injury. But he took a backseat to Josh Downs regarding target share for the second straight game. With Anthony Richardson eventually back under center, only one Colts pass-catcher will likely be relevant. And I'd bet it's Downs who is the most reliable based on his ability to command targets at an elite level. He has the fourth-highest target rate per route run this season.

Pittman has only exceeded 4.5 catches twice this season in games where Flacco spent the most time at quarterback. He’s 3-0 toward the under at this number with Anthony Richarson under center.

My Picks:

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