Colts vs. Lions NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 12)

Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Colts vs. Lions.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>

Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts

Sides

• The Lions are 21-9 ATS as favorites. They have been 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023 and are 17-7 ATS over their last 24 games. When in doubt? Lions ATS for the win.
• The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 road games.
• The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in 12 of their last 15 games.
• The Lions have won their last 12 games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Lions have won 11 of their last 13 home games.
• The Lions have been the first to 15 points in 13 of their last 14 games.
• The Lions have been the first to 15 points in each of their last nine home games
• The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last 12 road games following a home win.
• The favorites have won 19 of the Colts' last 23 games.
• The Colts are 2-1 ATS as favorites this season
• They are 6-2 ATS as an underdog (3-5 overall).
• The Colts are 8-1 as favorites since the start of 2023.
• The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games.
• The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games.
• The Colts have lost five of their last seven road games.
• The Colts have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC opponents.

Totals

• 14 of the Lions' last 21 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• The average total in the Lions' last 24 home games has been 54.6 points; 75 percent (18/24) of the games have scored at least 51 points.
• Eight of the Lions' last 11 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Lions’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last nine Colts' games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Colts' last 14 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Only 4x has an Anthony Richardson-led offense scored more than 10 points in the first half (ten starts), with seven or fewer points in four contests.
• With Richardson at QB this season, the Colts are 2-4 toward the over this season (1-4 toward the under in the last five games).
• The Colts have scored last in each of their last six games.
• With Joe Flacco, 3-2 O/U (last three games 2-1).
• The Colts are 4-2 toward the under in their last six games.
• At home 3-2 toward the over (44 points per game).
• The Lions' last two road games have gone under the total

Overall:

This game feels so dependent on which version of Anthony Ricardson we get under center. Last week against the Jets, Richardson completed 18 of 23 pass attempts from inside the pocket for a season-high 256 yards and 1 touchdown, his highest completion percentage (78.3%) and completion percentage above expected (+7.2%) on such attempts this season.

Richardson struggled to pass from inside the pocket prior to Week 11, recording just a 47.4% completion percentage and -10.9% CPOE on such attempts (Next Gen Stats).

Was Week 11 just a one-game blip on the radar or a sign of things to come? Re-watching this game, I still felt there were plenty of inaccurate throws. Richardson also fumbled twice.

I don't think we are beyond Richardson as an inconsistent passer. Detroit ranks 9th in lowest completion percentage faced this season and 7th in passes defended.

Still, the Colts have been a great team as an underdog this season, as Richardson's wild card value adds an element that can be hard for the market to capture. 6-2 ATS (75%) as an underdog this season (4-0 as home underdogs).

Richardson is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. Seems like he is at his best (like last week) when his back is against the wall.

And all the Colts do is play in close contests.

The 2024 Colts have 10 of their 11 games decided by one possession, boasting a 5-5 record in close games.

The Lions also love to blitz and play man coverage. It’s not a conservative defense by any means. They are going to take chances, and Richardson has the skill set to take advantage of it.

Detroit lost linebacker Alex Anzalone last week to IR. He was the team's leader in tackles.

The Lions haven’t been great against stopping rushing inside the tackles, but the Colts have been equally as poor rushing offensively from inside.

As for the Lions offense, it's more of the same. Nothing can truly slow them down besides self-inflicted wounds.

The Colts defense has allowed the 5th-most average yards per carry on designed rushes between the tackles this season (4.7), including the 3rd-most yards after contact per carry (3.5) on such carries (Next Gen Stats).

It's always hard to bet against the Lions, but there's so much value on Indy at home catching a touchdown-plus.

And in this spot last season one week before Thanksgiving, the Lions almost lost to the Bears at home as 8-point favorites. The score was 26-14 with four minutes left in the fourth quarter. Chicago had a 97% win probability.

Given the propensity for the Colts' offense to start slow, their might be a great opportunity to bet on the Colts LIVE at a better number if they go down seven or ten points from the get-go.

As for the total, I think I lean toward the under at 50.5. Lions' road games go under more often than home games.

Props:

Richardson has at least 45 rushing yards in two of his last three games, with his season-long average at 39 yards.

Josh Downs has gone over 57.5 receiving yards in four straight games and in seven of his nine games played this season. Richardson is a wild card, but the Lions are a slot-funnel defense and have allowed the 5th-most fantasy points allowed to the slot this season.

My Picks:

• Colts +7.5
• Under 50.5
• Josh Downs OVER 57.5 receiving yards