Colts vs Texans NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Indianapolis (IND) vs. Houston (HOU): HOU -2.5
Sides
- These teams played back in Week 18 of the 2023 season. The spread was Texans -1.5. Houston won by four points.
- The favorites have won each of the Colts' last 12 games.
- The Colts were 6-0 as favorites in 2023.
- The Colts are bad to bet as underdogs; the Texans are a bad beat as favorites.
- The 2023 Colts were 36% ATS as an underdog, going 3-8 overall as an underdog.
- The Texans were 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites (3-6 ATS as a favorite in 2023)
- Seven of their last nine wins have been by seven or fewer points.
- The Colts are one of two home underdogs in Week 1 (New York Giants)
- Overall, Houston is 10-7 versus the spread over their last 17 games. 8-6-1 in road games ATS.
- The Texans have covered the spread in four of their last five games against AFC South opponents.
Totals
- The Colts were 7-2 toward the over at home in 2023. These teams combined for 51 points back in Week 2 of last season. The Colts won after opening as underdogs.
- Five of the Colts’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Games played in Lucas Oil Stadium averaged 51.5 points per game in 2023.
- Three of the Texans' last four road games have gone under the total.
- The Texans have gone under in 11 of their last 17 games, which featured them playing many offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game.
Overall
It’s the 2023 Week 2 AFC South rematch we have been waiting for. A potential shootout between two QBs drafted inside the top 5 of last year's draft; I am fully anticipating a shootout. As pointed out in the sides notes, you don't want to back the Colts as underdogs and the Texans as favorites. So give me the OVER on this game in the dome, even at the large 48.5 projected total. Both of these teams played their starters to some extent in the preseason, so I am less concerned about slow starts. We should get fireworks in this matchup, with the Colts boasting a roster conducive for "overs." They still have major question marks in their secondary. I fully expect C.J. Stroud to take advantage of operating with his plethora of stud receivers.
This same Week 18 matchup (with Gardner Minshew as the Colts QB1) closed with a 47.5-point total. Add Anthony Richardson, Tank Dell, Adonai Mitchell, Stefon Diggs, and two healthy offensive lines (and Colts kicker Matt Gay dealing with a sports hernia injury) into the fold...I bet you can catch my drift on this game. Take the over, play all the guys in fantasy football, and embrace the player prop overs. Most of them, at least.
Props
- Dalton Schultz will not be involved enough in this offense alongside three strong WRs to hit his receiving yardage prop. The projections have him hitting the under at 33.2 yards. This number is inflated on his end-of-year production when he went over in five of his last seven games. Nico Collins was the only other healthy Texans WR playing commanding targets during that time frame. Take the under.
- However, don't do so with Collins. He went over 66.5 receiving yards in both games last season versus the Colts. His production will be bumpy this year with the other weapons in the offense, but based on this matchup, it should be a strong Collins outing.
- Gus Bradley's defense loves Cover 3, and Collins was the WR3 in yards per route run versus Cover 3 in 2023 per Jacob Gibbs. Also, the Colts’ strongest CB (Kenny Moore) plays in the slot. Collins projects for the most perimeter WR snaps among the Texans’ "Big 3" WRs, setting him up for 60 minutes of favorable looks.
- But back to tight end unders. No team deploys a TE-by-committee more than the Colts. They wanted Jelani Woods to be “the guy,” but he landed on IR with a toe injury. SMU’s finest, Kylen Granson, is forecasted to be the TE1. But he is listed as the starting F TE on the depth chart, alongside Y TE Mo Alie-Cox. Still, this is just too messy of a situation to confidently back the over. Granson went under 20 yards in 9 of his 15 games played last season (60%).
My Picks