Commanders vs. Bears NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 8)

Introducing the Week 8 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 8 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Commanders vs. Bears.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 8 Betting Primer>>

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

Sides:

• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 13 games. They are 5-1 ATS and straight up in their last six games.
• The Commanders have lost seven of their last 10 home games.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 games as favorites.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
• Chicago is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
• The Bears have won each of their last eight home games.
• The Bears have lost seven of their last eight road games.
• The Bears have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
• The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Bears’ last 11 games.
• The Bears are 9-4-1 ATS and 9-5 straight up in their last 14 games.
• In each of the Bears' last six games, their opponents have scored first.
• Chicago is 4-0 at home/neutral fields and 0-2 on the road.

Totals:

• Four of the Commanders’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Twelve of the Commanders’ last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
• The Bears have a 23-point implied team total.
• Six of the Bears’ last seven games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Bears’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Bears’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. They are 7-4-1 toward the under in their last 12 games.
• Ten of the Bears’ last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• They are 1-2 toward the over in their two road/London games this season.

Overall:

I talked about betting on the Chicago Bears in this week's Early Line Lookahead Show for NFL Week 8 because I was under the impression that Jayden Daniels would not suit up for the Commanders. It's trending in that direction for this week. Daniels will miss, sliding in Marcus Mariota to draw the home start.

I bet the Bears at +1.5 when they were still underdogs, so I am likely not doubling down with lines moved to Chicago -2.5 on the road.

Still, I can't help but want to bet against Marcus Mariota, especially after an inflated performance against a terrible Panthers defense.

Mariota is not the quick decision-maker that Daniels is. Per Next Gen Stats, Mariota averaged a 3.50 second time to throw (Daniels this season: 2.58 seconds). In turn, Mariota also targeted receivers downfield more often, throwing behind the line of scrimmage on just 8.7% of his attempts (Daniels: 26.8%) and past the sticks on 52.2% (Daniels: 41.7%).

The Bears have been a great bet as a favorite (8-2 straight up), whereas Washington projects to regress back closer to their 2023 form without their star rookie quarterback.

Chicago is coming off a bye week and has the superior defense. It is second overall against EPA/pass play and 14th in EPA/rush allowed.

Sure, the Commanders will look to the ground game to alleviate Daniels’s loss, but the Bears’ defense should be up to the task.

The Bears offense also has advantages against the Commanders. Per Next Gen Stats, Caleb Williams has averaged a 2.80 second time to throw this season (13th-slowest in NFL), recording a time to throw under 2.5 seconds just 46.7% of the time (13th-highest).

However, when throwing quick passes, Williams has completed 75 of his 93 attempts for 550 yards and four touchdowns, generating +20.7 EPA (the sixth-most in the NFL). Matchup: Opposing quarterbacks have recorded a 114.0 passer rating on quick passes against the Commanders this season, the second-highest in the NFL.

When it comes to game total, I very much like the under at 43.5 points. Because even though I like the Bears offense, I don't think this is an eruption spot. As noted last week, the Commanders’ defense at home ranks second in the fewest passing yards allowed per game. And I don't want to overlook Kliff Kingsbury and his familiarity with Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. When Washington played the Cardinals earlier this season, Kyler Murray looked lost. I'm sure Kingsbury's knowledge of Murray helped Washington prepare defensively, and I would presume they can do something similar at home in Week 8.

Instead of getting a shootout between this year's first and second overall picks, I'm projecting more of a slog, with the Bears winning ugly as the clock hits zero.

Props:

Chicago's run game has also come alive in recent weeks, and that should continue against the Commanders. D’Andre Swift has surpassed his rushing yards projection in three straight games, with at least 73 yards in each contest. Fresh off the bye week, he should continue to see opportunities. Six of the last seven RBs that Washington has faced have gone over their rushing yards projection this season. The projections have Swift closer to 63 rushing yards for Week 8.

My Picks:

• Bears -2.5
• Under 43.5
• D’Andre Swift OVER 57.5 rushing yards