Commanders vs Buccaneers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Tampa Bay (TB) vs. Washington (WAS): TB -3.5
Sides
- The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.
- Washington has covered as an underdog in 50% of their games in 2023.
- Tampa Bay is 4-1-1 ATS as a home favorite in their six games.
- The Underdogs have won five of the last seven Buccaneers' games.
Totals
- Six of the Commanders' last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The one "under" was a 48-point game that narrowly hit the under.
- When Washington didn't allow 20 points on defense last season, they were a perfect 4-0 toward the under; when they allowed at least 20 points on defense - 10-3 toward the OVER.
- Tampa Bay averaged 35 points total at home in 2023 (2-7 record toward the over).
- No. 1 red-zone defense in the NFL at home in 2023.
Overall
Jayden Daniels will make his first NFL start on the road in Tampa Bay. He will start behind a shaky offensive line against a fierce Buccaneers defensive front. He is going to be running. A lot.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield will take on Dan Quinn's Washington defense, which still lacks the personnel to be a strong, well-rounded unit. Quinn will eventually get the most of what he can from this bunch, but asking Emmanuel Forbes to cover Mike Evans just isn't going to work. The Buccaneers have an improved OL, so Mayfield can get the ball to Evans, Chris Godwin, etc. more than enough to cover the 4-point spread.
The Buccaneers have been solid bets as home favorites in their last six games as favorites, and it remains to be seen whether the Daniels-Kliff Kingsbury combination is a match made in heaven. I think in the long run, Daniels will win the OROY award. But I am going to temper my expectations in Week 1 that they keep this game within a field goal.
Props
- Zach Ertz averaged 3.9 Recs per game last season in seven games played. What defense allowed the most targets and second-most catches/yards to TEs in 2023? The Buccaneers.
My Picks
- Buccaneers -3.5
- Under 43.5
- Zach Ertz over 3.5 receptions