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Commanders vs. Eagles: NFL Week 4 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Eagles.

NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team (PHI -8)

I'm old enough to remember when the Commanders were 7-point favorites against a "tanking" Cardinals team back in Week 1. Oh, how things have changed.

I think it's easy to look at this line and just lock-in the Eagles as seven-point home favorites. Sam Howell was an utter disaster last week at home versus a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Four interceptions and nine sacks.

And the early bettors agreed with me, moving the line to 8 points since the open. Losing the key number sucks, but it's still not enough to get me off backing the Eagles. They won handily by two touchdowns versus an inferior Buccaneers team at home on Monday night. I'd put the Commanders squarely in that tier of team; one that can beat bad teams but crumble in the presence of the elite. Keep in mind that both their wins this season came as 4th quarter comebacks.

The Eagles defensive line is better than the Bills, and that is going to make for a long day for Howell, who leads the NFL in sacks (19) and pressure-to-sack rate (40%).  Eagles rank 6th in total pressures (35, nearly 12 per game).

You'd hope the Commanders offense could establish a ground game to help take pressure off their quarterback, but that will be tough given the Eagles D ranks second-best in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (40.3).

And I'm sure the Eagles haven't forgotten when the Commanders beat the at home last season despite entering the game as 10.5-point favorites. Keep in mind that it took three lost fumbles (one for a TD) and 40:20 time of possession advantage for Washington to pull off the upset.

Like the Bills, the Eagles have dominated time of possession this season with their unstoppable ground attack. That made it problematic for Washington's offense/defense last week and I feel strongly it will be more of the same in Week 4.

As for totals, it's back to the under. These teams are a combined 4-2 toward the under this season. Liked the under for the Bills-Commanders at 43.5 last week and view this as a similar spot to bet it again.

And similarly, we will be approaching the player props with a similar mindset. We had a clean sweep with the passing yardage unders for Howell, and I think it's wise to go back to it.

He has only gone over this number in one of his four total NFL starts (Week 2) and that came on the back of three passing plays of 30-plus yards. The Eagles boast nearly the same yards per attempt on defense as the Bills (6.7 vs 6.6).

McLaurin has just a 17% target share this season - the same as Jahan Dotson. Outside a 30-yard TD catch in Week 2, TMC has totaled 12 catches for 96 yards through three games.

My Picks:

My Props:

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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