Commanders vs. Giants: NFL Week 7 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering - I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering - this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Giants.
NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Giants
New York Giants (NYG) vs. Washington Football Team (WAS) - New York (+2.5)
We have some weather concerns with heavy wind potential, so track that as we approach Sunday's kick-off time. Rain is not a factor, but winds are forecasted up to 20 miles per hour.
The Giants offense is arguably coming off its best game to date with Tyrod Taylor at the helm, but I'd argue Saquon Barkley's return it what actually fueled Big Blue's most productive offensive outing since Week 2 versus the Cardinals. Ergo, whether it's Daniel Jones or Taylor at QB, I am not sure it really matters given all the OL injuries on the Giants side of the ball.
The Commanders defense ranks 8th in pressure rate and 6th in sacks. And after allowing 33-plus points in 4 straight games, they limited the Falcons to 16 points while playing on the road.
New York is 5-1 toward the under this season.
Still, they covered the spread with an impressive defensive outing, holding the Bills to 14 points and under 300 total yards. And I'd expect them to find some similar success playing at home versus the Commanders with their blitz-heavy scheme.
Sam Howell versus the blitz this season: 27th in yards per attempt, second-highest pressure to sack rate, 5th worst in passer rating.
Still, can't ignore how productive the Commanders' offense has been productive under Howell - scoring at least 20 points in all their games outside the loss to Buffalo.
But again when it comes to the sides, it's all about turnovers. The Commanders covered last week winning the turnover battle 3-0.
When they have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 3 games they have covered, 0 turnovers on offense.
The Giants have done a better job of taking care of the football the last two weeks with zero offensive turnovers, while their defense has generated 5.
From a sides perspective this game seems like a screaming stay away with unpredictable turnovers almost surely the deciding factor. As a result, I'd likely settle with Giants +2.5, but I can't touch it until I see this week's injury report with the state of their OL and current QB situation. As of the initial injury report, the OL still looks to be in shambles.
The total seems like an under play even at a low number of 39.5, but a healthy Giants unit might be actually able to move the ball.
The Commanders run defense boasts a strong front, but they can be run on. They rank 32nd in expected points added on run defense. They are allowing north of 4 yards per carry to RBs and the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (34.3).
Although I still lean toward the under with Saquon Barkley's rushing prop. Sits at 68.5 rushing yards on Prizepicks despite him getting that number just once this season in three games played. The Commanders have allowed just two RBs to hit 70-plus rushing yards against them this season, and it's come due to big rushes. James Cook and Khalil Herbert ripped off 34-yard gains versus Washington when they went over their projected rushing totals.
Barkley looked like his explosive self on Sunday night, with rushes of 34 yards and 19 yards. But betting on a repeat performance with another massive rush seems unlikely, especially given the state of the Giants OL.
Washington's secondary is actually abysmal. 3rd-most fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. League-high yards per completion (12.7) and 3rd-highest adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
Again, the only Giants games to go over the totals have been when their offense has shown any pulse. As it stands right now, that seems like it could be the case versus a real bad Commanders defense playing on the road.
This matchup also features two defenses that rank the highest - 4th and 8th respectively - in explosive plays allowed on defense.
As long as the weather outlook improves for Sunday, I think we could get an over in this spot.
And we can't overlook how effective Daniel Jones has been versus Washington in his career. He has a 5-1-1 record versus them straight up (2-0 versus the spread last season). The Giants have been underdogs versus the Commanders in their last four matchups...with Big Blue covering or winning outright in all four contests. 6-1 versus the spread.
Curtis Samuel’s receptions at plus money hit last week. Let's roll it back. He's hit the over on his projected total in five of his 6 games played this season including three straight.
My Picks:
- Over 39 ( -110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Giants +2.5 (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
My Props:
- Saquon Barkley Under 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110 BetMGM)
- Curtis Samuel over 3.5 receptions (+115 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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