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Commanders vs. Panthers NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 7)

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Introducing the Week 7 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 7 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Commanders vs. Panthers.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week X Betting Primer>>

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders

Sides

  • The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.
  • The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 16 games.
  • The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents.
  • Dave Canales went 8-2 ATS with Baker Mayfield on the road in 2023 and is 1-1 in that category this season with Dalton.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 12 games. They are 4-1 ATS and straight up in their last five games.
  • The Commanders have lost seven of their last nine home games.
  • The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games as favorites.

Totals

  • Ten of the Panthers' last 17 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Eight of the Panthers' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Each of the Commanders’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Eleven of the Commanders' last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 5-2 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 13-3 toward the OVER.
  • The Panthers have a 21.75 implied team total.

Overall:

Well, I can tell you one thing. I'm not taking the Panthers with the points this week. I’m recalibrating my approach after continuously backing them with points week after week with no success. We've got the league's best rushing offense against the league's worst rushing defense.

The Commanders should be able to control the ball and pace of play with their elite rushing attack. Washington dominated the last two bad defenses it's faced this season - Arizona and Cleveland - and I'd expect more of the same against Carolina.

Now the question is, can the Panthers keep the game close enough to cover? Or to at least put this game over the massive 51.5-point total? A game between two of the worst teams in the NFL last season has the highest projected total on the slate. What a world we live in.

I'm hesitant to pull the trigger on the over, given that both teams will seek victory with their ground game more than through the air.

The Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard has been a beast, and I expect him to get heavy usage in this game.

Per Next Gen Stats, Hubbard has run for 485 yards and two touchdowns across 86 carries this season, generating +129 rush yards over expected, 5th-most in the NFL.

Hubbard has done an excellent job at getting downhill quickly, averaging a 2.55 seconds time to the line of scrimmage, the quickest among any ball carrier with at least 40 carries this season. Hubbard has taken advantage of light boxes as well, with 355 of his rushing yards coming with less than seven defenders in the box, 78 yards more than the next closest player. The Commanders have utilized a light box on 70.3% of their defensive snaps this season, the 6th-highest in the NFL, allowing 5.5 yards per carry on such snaps (19th in the NFL).

Hubbard has gained more yards than expected on 55.4% of his carries this season, the highest among running backs (min. 50 carries).

In total, Hubbard has generated +129 rushing yards over expected in 2024, 5th-most in the league. Hubbard has been effective rushing outside the tackles, recording the most yards per carry on such rushes among running backs (7.9, min. 25 carries) and the 4th-most RYOE (+110). The Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most yards per carry to outside rushes this season (5.9).

Needless to say, Carolina will to their best to establish the run to keep their defense off the field in all facets. Because I think the Commanders pass defense at home can play better than most expect. Who leads the NFL in the fewest passing yards per game at home this season? Washington.

I've often cited how Dallas plays better at home, but maybe that was more a trend related to Dan Quinn. Because in eight full quarters of football played in the nation's capital, the Commanders have allowed just 15.5 points per game (2-0 toward the under). And when Washington holds teams to under 20 points, games go toward the under.

Give me the under at 51.5 points.

Props:

Hubbard has over 90 rushing yards in his last four games this season. The Commanders have allowed 715 rushing yards to opposing running backs (5th-most in the NFL). Every running back they have faced has gone OVER their projected rushing totals this season.

My Picks:

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