Commanders vs. Seahawks: NFL Week 10 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Commanders vs. Seahawks.
NFL Betting Primer: Commanders vs. Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders defense is not good. They traded away their two best pass-rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young, before the trade deadline. And that showed up versus the Patriots in Week 9, when they sacked Mac Jones zero times as Week 9's 3rd-least pressured QB. Any QB with actual weapons would have diced up the Commanders defense. Insert the Seattle Seahawks and their talented trio of wideouts.
The narrative overall is down on Geno Smith. But in the last two weeks, he has faced the league's No. 1 and No. 2 ranked pass defenses per DVOA. The week before that versus Arizona, Smith also underwhelmed. But again, divisional matchup, things can get weird. Also, no DK Metcalf.
The Lions' status as one of the best teams in the NFL, laying an egg versus the Ravens, tells us more about the juggernaut that Baltimore's defense is. Do not hold that against Seattle.
Heading into last week's game against Baltimore, I was concerned. The fact that the Seahawks’ defense gave up so much production to the Browns led by PJ Walker - 385 total yards two weeks ago - had me concerned they might not hold up versus the Ravens on the road. They did not, as the Ravens overpowered them, just like they did to the Lions.
But this is a matchup-driven league. The Washington defense is the opposite of Baltimore.
Therefore, I like the Seahawks as six-point favorites at home. Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-2-1 ATS and a 2-0-1 ATS at home. Big bounce-back spot for Geno Smith and this passing game.
I also like the Seattle defense more in this spot. Their pass defense has improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year...they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in five straight games. And even after they got gashed on the ground last week, they have been one of the most formidable run defenses all season. That should force the already pass-happy Commanders to throw even more, which can work in Seattle's favor at home. Favorites have won each of the last 6 Seahawks games.
When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 4 games they have covered, just 2 turnovers on offense.
As for the total, five of the Seahawks' last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Commanders have gone under the total points line in three straight road games. Think the line at 45.5 is spot on, so likely a spot I'll shy away from. But when in doubt, bet the under at 45.5 points.
9/9 WR1s have hit the over on their receiving yardage prop versus the Commanders. The DK Metcalf explosion game is coming. Conversely, I am strongly fading Tyler Lockett. The guy has been on the injury report all year with a hamstring injury. He’s gone over 59.5 receiving yards just twice this season (25%).
My Picks:
- Seahawks -6
My Props:
- DK Metcalf over 63.5 receiving yards
- Tyler Lockett under 59.5 receiving yards
- Brian Robinson Jr. under 46.5 rushing yards
- Logan Thomas over 33.5 receiving yards
- Sam Howell over 36.5 pass attempts
- Kenneth Walker under 16.5 carries
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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