Coronavirus Impact on NBA Betting Strategies (2020)
Well, we’ve made it!
Kind of.
This week brings American sports back to our airwaves as both the NBA and NHL re-start their seasons with football hopefully right around the corner.
The much-needed distractions come with a few changes in protocols and approaches to games, which almost certainly will have a downstream effect on betting. In the NBA, the first night of action saw some predictable rust from all four teams, as well as the referees (and bookmakers), with both games falling well below the under and dogs covering in both.
With a full slate of games over the course of the weekend and for weeks to come, let’s take a look at a few of the biggest things to be aware of and potentially cash in on as the NBA’s bubble unfolds for weeks and months to come.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. You can also check out our consensus odds to win the NBA Championship here.
Early Rust
We’ve already seen it, all be it in a micro-sized sample, that despite an accelerated training camp and weeks to prepare; the play is expectedly sloppy. Unlike the start of a normal NBA season, where players have months to prepare, the idea of this bubble even working was taken more seriously by some players than others, and that will be more apparent as the next couple weeks play out.
The Public is Starved for Action
As a general rule of them, the majority of bettors love betting overs (admittedly, the most fun bet in sports) and the favorites, as they are generally perceived as the “better†and more notable team.
With that in mind, expect lines on favorites and the totals to increase off of their opening numbers, which creates value for bettors who can get the opposite side at their peaks before being bet back down by the professionals.
Team Motivations
Coming into the bubble, there are 10 teams still trying to earn a playoff spot with two of them (Wizards and Suns) having a very, very remote chance at them. In the West, the Trail Blazers, Kings, Pelicans, and Spurs all sit 3.5 games back of the eighth seed (Grizzlies), and early losses could put them completely out of the picture as all teams have just eight regular-season games to make up ground.
With load management already on the mind of coaches and GMs, look for the teams that lose early games to begin tanking by the fourth or fifth game, as they look to prevent injury of their key players in what end up being meaningless games.
Also, check out:
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.