Cowboys vs. Buccaneers: 2023 NFL Wild Card Weekend Same Game Parlays Picks (Monday)
Arguably the most anticipated game of Wild Card Weekend will take place Monday night, as the Cowboys head to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. The Cowboys are 2.5-point favorites on the road as they try to beat Tom Brady for the first time in franchise history. The Bucs, on the other hand, come into the game at 8-9. They do have reason to be confident, as they beat the Cowboys in Dallas back in Week 1.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Guide >>
2023 NFL Wild Card Weekend Same Game Parlays Best Bets: Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
This should be a competitive game with plenty of star power and storylines. There’s also plenty of interesting value in the betting markets for this game. I’ll be playing this three-leg Same Game Parlay on DraftKings for Monday’s game.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leg 1: Buccaneers ML (+120)
I expect this game to be closely contested, but I think Tampa Bay will pull off a victory at home. Objectively, the Cowboys have been a much better team this season. They come into the game at 12-5, while the Bucs come in under .500. While Dallas has played well this year, they’ve slowed down considerably in recent weeks. They’re 3-2 over their last five games, but this includes a four-point win over the Texans and victories over the Eagles and Titans in games where both teams were missing their starting QBs. Their losses came as road favorites against the Jaguars and Commanders. These losses highlight another interesting trend — Dallas is 1-4 on grass this year, compared to 11-1 on turf.
While the Bucs haven’t been playing lights-out recently, the opportunity to bet on Tom Brady as a home underdog in the playoffs is rare. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled recently, but has been opportunistic — they’ve forced an interception in three of their last four games. Dak Prescott leads the league in interceptions, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs force a turnover or two on Monday.
I think the Buccaneers stick to a conservative offensive game plan, stay aggressive on defense and come out on top Monday night.
Leg 2: Leonard Fournette u49.5 Rush Yards (-230)
While Rachaad White has been breaking out in recent weeks, Leonard Fournette is still getting solid usage. He played minimally last week but logged at least 10 carries in each of his three previous games. However, been largely unproductive over that stretch, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Fournette has also shown minimal explosiveness this season — he only logged one run over 10 yards in his last 10 games.
I don’t expect things to get any easier for Fournette against the Cowboys. Dallas’ run defense is a strength for them this year — their 4.2 yards allowed per carry ranks in the top 10 in the NFL. I think the Bucs win this one due to their passing game — with their offensive line injuries and Fournette’s struggles in recent weeks, I don’t expect him to be a major factor Monday night.
Leg 3: Russell Gage Anytime TD (+390)
This play is definitely a long shot, but I think there’s value in playing Russell Gage’s TD prop on Monday. In an offense with star wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Gage has quietly emerged as the favorite red zone target in recent weeks. Gage logged nine red zone targets in his last five games, and at least one red zone target in four of those five games. No other Buccaneers WR has more than three red zone targets in that stretch.
Gage will have a favorable matchup on Monday night against a Cowboys defense that has allowed opposing WRs to score 22 TDs this season — the highest mark in the NFL. With the Cowboys focusing primarily on stopping Evans and Godwin, I expect Gage to work the middle of the field and continue to produce in the red zone.
It’s a long shot, but there’s value here, and it boosts our parlay odds significantly.
Parlay Odds: +1000
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