Cowboys vs. Lions NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 6)
Introducing the Week 6 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 6 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Cowboys vs. Lions.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 6 Betting Primer>>
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Sides:
- The road team has won each of the Cowboys' last seven games.
- Dallas is 4-6 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 17 of the Cowboys' last 24 games.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost back-to-back-to-back home games.
- The Lions are 17-8 ATS as a favorite. The Lions are 70%-plus ATS favorites since the start of 2023. The Detroit Lions are 12-6 ATS over their last 18 games.
- The Lions have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games.
- The Lions have covered the spread as favorites in eight of their last 10 games.
Totals:
- Five of the Cowboys' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Cowboys' last 19 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 11 of 17 games through the air.
- Games in Dallas have averaged 58 points this season (2-0 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 8-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
- Thirteen of the Cowboys' last 16 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Ten of the Lions' last 15 games have gone OVER the total points line.
Overall
These teams last faced off in Week 17 of the 2023 season, where Dallas escaped with a controversial victory by a score of 20-19. Still, the Lions covered the 5-point spread.
I'd hardly be surprised if Dan Campbell was using last year's loss to motivate his team again to finish what they started last season.
This is a great spot for them to impose their offensive will against the Dallas Cowboys’ depleted defensive line.
We know that the Lions prefer to run the football if given the opportunity. They have the fifth-highest rush rate this season, and it's been super-efficient.
Per Next Gen Stats, David Montgomery has recorded a rush success rate of 46.5% since joining the Lions last season, the fourth-highest among running backs with at least 150 carries.
On the other hand, Jahmyr Gibbs has a success rate of just 39.0% (22nd). What Gibbs has lacked in consistency, he has made up for in explosiveness. Gibbs has the 6th-highest explosive run rate (14.4%) over the last two seasons, while Montgomery has an explosive run rate of just 9.9% (19th). Both Montgomery and Gibbs have combined for 1,706 rushing yards after contact since 2023, the most in the NFL by any RB duo.
I just can't see Dallas' defense having any answers for stopping this elite rushing attack.
They are better off hoping this game turns into a shootout where Jared Goff is forced to drop back 40-plus times.
Per Next Gen Stats, Goff has faced zone on a league-high 85.1% of his dropbacks. More specifically, Goff has faced Cover 3 on 47.8% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL by a margin of 6.2% (Bo Nix, 41.6%). Jared Goff has used play action on a career-high 37.0% of dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL.
The Cowboys have played zone coverage (71.8%) and Cover 3 (31.3%) at rates similar to the NFL average this season (70.9%; 30.7%). The Cowboys defense has allowed the third-lowest completion percentage on play-action passes this season (53.8%).
Big D's secondary is somewhat underrated and can probably have some success slowing down a Lions' aerial attack. CB Daron Bland will return from IR, and slot CB Jourdan Lewis has the requisite toolkit to slow down Amon-Ra St. Brown. Per Next Gen Stats, Jourdan Lewis has allowed just 3.4 yards per target as the nearest defender in coverage this season, 2nd-fewest among 28 slot cornerbacks with at least 10 targets faced (Ar'Darius Washington, 3.3).
The Cowboys’ offense has been incomplete this season. The run offense has been mostly non-existent.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys offense has generated -105 rushing yards over expected this season, the fewest in the NFL. Cowboys rushers have generated more yards than expected on just 29.5% of carries this season, tied for the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL. Dallas has gained 10 or more yards on just 7 of 108 designed runs this season (6.5%), giving them the 4th-lowest explosive run rate in the NFL on such carries this season.
Last week, Rico Dowdle showed signs of life. He had 20 carries for 87 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards on a 50% snap share - the highest rate this season.
But it's another tough draw for him against a fierce Lions run defense. Fourth-fewest rushing yards allowed while ranking 10th in stuff rate percentage. Dallas will try to keep things rolling with Dowdle, but they will abandon it quickly if the game script calls for it.
The game will heavily fall on the shoulders of Dak Prescott and whether he can deliver against the Lions' pass funnel defense (third in pass rate faced).
Per Next Gen Stats, the Lions’ defense has increased their man coverage usage rate by 9.4% from last season (32.5%, 12th-highest) to this season (41.9%, 3rd-highest), the 6th-largest year-over-year increase in the NFL. Opposing passers have thrown 43.0% of their passes outside the numbers against the Lions this season (5th-highest), compared to 37.9% last season (5th-lowest). The Lions have aligned their outside cornerbacks in press coverage on 34.4% of their snaps this season, the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.
CeeDee Lamb has stayed effective against press coverage this season, recording a near identical target rate (27.1%) and yards per route (2.8) to last season.
Lamb and Jalen Tolbert will be heavily featured as receivers outside the numbers in this matchup.
Prescott ranks fifth in CPOE over expectation on throws outside the numbers (+4.8%) but has three interceptions. The Cowboys quarterback will attack the perimeter that the Lions allow, for better or for worse. Prescott leads the NFL in passing yards against man coverage.
I think this game gets points, but I can poke enough holes to have it come underneath the massive 52.5-point total. Again, this same matchup last season that totaled 39 points. If Detroit plays bully ball running the football - like they did against Arizona, Tampa Bay, and the Rams when the games went UNDER the total - we are likely looking at a game total under 52.5 points. Their offense also typically plays better at home than on the road.
From a sides perspective, I think this one is tight but side with the Lions -3 based on their strong track record ATS and how well road teams have performed in Cowboys games.
Props:
Per Next Gen Stats, Sam LaPorta has been sent in motion on 37.7% of his offensive snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL and the highest rate among tight ends (min. 100 snaps).
LaPorta has been targeted three times on his 33 routes run when being sent in motion (three receptions, 14 yards). LaPorta was sent in motion on 24.4% of his offensive snaps in his rookie season. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 9.8 yards per attempt on pass plays with pre-snap motion this season, the most in the NFL.
The volume hasn’t been there for LaPorta, but the matchup suggests we could see him pick up chunk yardage because of a mismatch. He’s gone over 41.5 yards twice this season and went for 84 yards last season against the Cowboys.
Goff has attempted fewer than 33.5 passes in three of four games this season. Conversely, Gibbs has gone over 12.5 carries and 57.5 rushing yards in three straight contests. Take the over with Gibbs’ rushing props.
My Picks: