Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Game Pick

The Chiefs wrapped up the AFC West last weekend, and will now look to better their playoff positioning with a game against the divisional rival Broncos. Denver is coming off their best performance of the year, one that saw rookie Drew Lock throw for 309 yards and three touchdowns in only his second start.

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Details

• Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Chiefs -11.5; O/U 46.5. The spread has dropped all the way to the key number of -10.
• Current Line: Chiefs -10
• O/U: 46.5
• Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• Start Time: 1:00 pm ET
• Television: CBS
• Last Meeting: October 17, 2019 — The Chiefs defeated the Broncos 30-6 at Mile High.

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Overview

After starting the season 3-8, the Broncos are on a two-game winning streak, including a 38-24 rout of the Texans in Houston last week. Rookie quarterback Drew Lock is 2-0 and has completed 72.7% of his passes for 443 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. With Lock at the helm, the Broncos have scored more points in two games than they had in their previous four games combined. But even with Lock's strong play, the Broncos are still putting up the fourth-worst passing yards per game in the NFL.

Defensively, the Broncos have been a decent unit all year. They are ranked sixth in passing yards allowed per game, which is a number that will be put to the test this week against the Chiefs' high-powered passing attack. The Broncos are also ranked in the top-10 in points allowed per game and are just outside the top-10 in total yards allowed per game.

With their win over the Patriots last week, the Chiefs have already wrapped up the AFC West and will now spend the rest of the season trying to catch the Patriots and the Ravens for a first-round bye. The Chiefs have won three straight games and four of their last five, including a huge one last weekend over the Patriots in Foxborough. In their last four victories, the Chiefs have also managed to cover the spread.

The Chiefs' glaring weakness all season long has been their run defense. Even as the Chiefs continue to win games and cover spreads, the rush defense is still ranked as the fifth-worst in the league, giving up an average of 137.7 yards per game. The Denver's Phillip Lindsay has rushed for 817 yards this season and is averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which could cause a matchup problem for the Chiefs this week. The first time these two teams met, Lindsay had just 36 yards on 11 carries.

Trends

• The Chiefs are 8-5 ATS this season.
• The Broncos are 8-5 ATS this season.
• The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Chiefs' last five games vs. the AFC West.
• The under is 8-1-1 in the Broncos' last 10 games vs. the AFC West.
• The total has gone over in four of Denver's last five games.
• The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Broncos.

Prop Bet

First Half Total under 23.5 (-120)
Between the performance of the Broncos' offense last week and the fact that the Chiefs have a healthy Patrick Mahomes, it's not surprising to see the number at 46.5. However, the weather is going to be a factor this week, and the Broncos will likely have to rely on their rushing attack in order to stay in this game. If they do, the pace is going to be slowed down greatly, which keeps the ball out of Mahomes' hands. The last time these two teams met, there were 26 points at the half, but that was in near perfect conditions.

Bottom Line

The Broncos were embarrassed at home the first time they played the Chiefs and will certainly be out for some form of revenge this week. While Denver looked great last week, it's hard to say whether or not that was a flukey performance, especially since Houston was coming off such a big win. Drew Lock is going to be on everyone's minds all week leading up to this game, but the forecast in Kansas City is calling for snow, which could make life very difficult for the rookie. The Chiefs have already wrapped up the division and could come out a bit hungover to start the game, but there is no doubt they are better than the Broncos. Despite their record, the Broncos have actually been a good ATS team this season. They won't get the win here, and Lock will look more like he did in his first start, but the defense will do enough to keep this one close.

Pick: Broncos +10

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Check out our other NFL Sports Betting Guides for Week 15

• Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (+5.5)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+4)
• Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)
• Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+6)
• Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (-3)
• New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (+10)
• Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3)
• Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5)
• Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
• Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)
• Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
• Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
• Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
• Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-9)

Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.