Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys Odds & Game Pick (2021)
Dak Prescott returns in Week 9 to lead his NFC East, leading Dallas Cowboys against the now rebuilding Denver Broncos. Dallas is 6-0 ATS this season and hopes to continue that trend Sunday. Below we’ll take a closer look at the betting angle surrounding this game.
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Details
- Opening Line: O/U: 49.5 |DAL -8.5
- Current Line: O/U: 49.5 | DAL -10
Overview
Dallas comes into this game fresh off a last-minute victory on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. Backup quarterback, Cooper Rush, started in Prescott’s place due to a calf injury. Many chalked this up to a loss for the Cowboys, but Rush would go out and throw for 325 yards and two touchdowns – orchestrating the game-winning drive. Not a bad debut, eh?
Denver started the season red hot, going 3-0, providing hope for the organization and fan base. However, those games were against the: New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Jets, and not exactly world-beaters.
It should be no shock that they’re 1-4 since then and now begin a slight rebuild after trading away star linebacker and eight-time Pro Bowler Von Miller. Miller’s best years may be behind him, but he was still a leader and effective player.
Below we’ll compare how these two team’s matchups metrically:
Numbers Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Average Offensive Snaps
- DEN: 64.8
- DAL: 76.0
% Run Plays:
- DEN: 36.0%
- DAL: 40.7%
% Pass Plays:
- DEN: 64.0%
- DAL: 59.3%
EPA Per Run:
- DEN: -0.18
- DAL: -0.06
EPA Per Pass:
- DEN: 0.08
- DAL: 0.21
It should come as no surprise that Dallas is superior to Denver in every metric. Prescott is PFF’s NO.2. rated quarterback and squarely in the MVP conversation. Teddy Bridgewater grades out well metrically with a PFF grade of 77.2, but these numbers are inflated due to a conservative playing style and zero explosiveness.
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Trends
- Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games as a favorite
Bottom Line
This line has risen with the news that Prescott will be a full-go Sunday. Dallas has an embarrassment of riches offensively, and their defense has impressed thus far.
Denver’s offense is mediocre, ranked 19th by PFF, as Bridgewater limits the abilities of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. This team’s strength was supposed to be its defense, but it has been merely average after a hot start.
Back at home with Prescott at the helm, I’ll be looking for the Cowboys to take advantage of this very mediocre Broncos team.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -10
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