Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers NFL Sports Betting Guide

by Zach Brunner |
Sep 20, 2019

In a battle of winless and unbeaten, the Denver Broncos head to Lambeau Field in hopes of handing the Green Bay Packers their first loss of the season. Despite only being Week 3, the two teams already share a common opponent. The Packers kicked off the 100th NFL season against the Bears, beating Chicago 10-3 in a defensive battle. Last week, the Bears came to Denver and defeated the Broncos, 16-14, due to a last-second field goal. With two talented defenses and offenses that have yet to work all the kinks out, this should be a good battle on Sunday.

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Broncos vs Packers Odds and Info

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Opening Lines: GB -7.5, O/U 43.5
Moneyline: DEN (+250) | GB (-300)
Spread: DEN +8 (-130) | GB -8 (+110)
Total: 42.5 â€” Over: (-130) | Under: (+110)
Location: Lambeau Field â€” Green Bay, WI
Start Time: 1 pm ET
Coverage: FOX

Injuries

Denver Broncos: OT Jaâ€™Wuan James (Out), LB Joe Jones (Out), CB Bryce Callahan (Q), FB Andy Janovich (Q)
Green Bay Packers: TE Jimmy Graham (Q), LB Blake Martinez (Q), WR Jake Kumerow (Q), S Darnell Savage (Q), WR Darrius Shepherd (Q)

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Overview

The Broncos season hasnâ€™t started the way they had hoped, losing two games by a combined 10 points. New head coach Vic Fangio has brought his defensive expertise to Mile High, but with his defensive group not fully healthy the first two weeks, they have had some soft spots, specifically in the running game. In Week 1, rookie running back Josh Jacobs ran for 85 yards and two touchdowns in his debut. Last week, rookie David Montgomery ran for 62 yards and a touchdown of his own. Facing Green Bay this week, they will need to sure up their run defense first. Still, they feature one of the most feared duos off the edge, in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller.

Offensively, Joe Flacco has looked better than expected, and a couple dropped touchdowns make his stats look much worse than they actually are. He was forced to pass a whopping 50 times last week, which led to 292 yards with both a touchdown and an interception. Missing his left tackle this week, the Broncos may need to commit an extra blocker out left to try and slow down the Green Bay pass rush, especially after such a strenuous last game for the veteran quarterback.

Green Bay has played solid defense overall in their first two games. They completely shut down the Bears in Week 1, then forced Kirk Cousins into mistakes last week, though they did have trouble with Dalvin Cook and the running attack (198 rushing yards). Their strength has been getting pressure to the quarterback, which they did on 26 occasions last week. If the Broncos are not able to get quality protection on their left side, it will be a long day for Flacco.

Offensively, the Pack is yet to fully click, but we can clearly see that this is a run-first offense. Aaron Jones had a career-high 23 carries last week, and he will look to make it three weeks in a row that the Broncos fail to contain the opposing teamâ€™s lead back. If Jones and Jamaal Williams run successfully, the play-action is where this offense will kill people. Essentially, this game comes down to pass protection and the run game for both teams.

Trends

Denver is 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.
The total has hit the under in all of the last 10 games for Denver.
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
The total has hit the under in four of the last five games for Green Bay.
Denver leads the all-time series with Green Bay, 7-6-1.
Last Meeting: November 1, 2015 â€” The Broncos defeated the Packers, 29-10, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

Prop Bet

All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Away Team Total Points: Under 17.5 (-118) â€” As I said above, this game will come down to pass protection and the running game. With Denverâ€™s left tackle out, I think the unit up front fails to keep Flacco off the dirt. The only way they will slow down the Packers defensive front is to commit an extra blocker, which takes a playmaker off the field. As for running, the Packers are better against the run than they showed last week. They stuffed Dalvin Cook all day, allowing just 29 yards before contact. They simply need to finish plays. On the Denver side, they have 185 rushing yards through two games, with the talent of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay being nothing to write home about. And again, they suffer from the left tackle out. Scoring just 16 and 14 in the first two weeks respectively, the Broncos will again be held under 18.

Bottom Line

If the Packers hold Denver under 17.5, I think Green Bay can clear this spread. We saw last week how Matt LaFleur can plan a game script as well as anyone in the league. The Packers scored a quick 21 points, which was an improvement from the first week. Now, Green Bay just needs to work on in-game adjustments. The Packers will look at Week 1 when Oakland passed all over Denver and exploited mismatches with their tight end. LaFleur loves his three tight ends, and this passing attack is more talented and deep than Oaklandâ€™s. Look for Sunday to be the official coming out for this new-look offense, just two weeks later than Cheeseheads hoped for.

Pick: Green Bay Packers -8