Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos Odds & Game Pick
Both the Lions and the Broncos have been eliminated from the playoffs ahead of this week’s matchup, and therefore this game really comes down to NFL Draft positioning. While the Lions can’t finish with the number one pick, there is still a chance they could obtain the second pick in next year’s draft.
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Details
- Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Broncos -6.5; O/U 37.5. Nothing has changed.
- Current Line: Broncos -6.5
- O/U: 37.5
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- Start Time: 4:05 pm ET
- Television: CBS
- Last Meeting: September 27, 2015 – The Broncos defeated the Lions 24-12 in Detroit.
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Overview
After a fantastic start to the 2019 season, the Lions have been one of the worst teams both SU and ATS. They have lost seven straight games and 10 of their last 11 as they have very quietly put themselves in the mix for the number two pick in next year’s draft. Matthew Stafford was officially put on IR this week, and a lot of the Lions’ recent bad play can be attributed to them starting David Blough, the undrafted rookie quarterback from Purdue. Kerryon Johnson is trying to get back on the field and play this week, but seeing as the running back has had injury problems in his first two seasons, it’s hard to understand why.
Martha Ford has already announced that she will be retaining general manager Bob Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia for next season, so it’s hard to say if that will inspire the team to play better or cause them to get complacent knowing that their head coach is safe heading into next season.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have been surprisingly good ATS of late and all season despite their 5-9 record. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 8-6 ATS on the season. Rookie quarterback Drew Lock has started the last three games and the Broncos are 2-1 both ATS and SU in those contests. Of course, they are coming off a horrible performance against the Chiefs last week, where the conditions and the Chiefs’ defense proved to be too much for the rookie. Phillip Lindsay managed just 32 yards rushing in that games.
Despite the final score, the Broncos’ defense only gave up two touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, even though they were constantly put in situations where their backs were against the wall. The unit ranks in the top 10 in points against and passing yards allowed per game this season. The one area of weakness for the unit is their run defense which is allowing 113.6 yards per game. However, unless Kerryon Johnson does play and is at full health, it is unlikely that the Lions’ 21st ranked running attack will be able to take advantage.
Trends
- The Lions are 5-9 ATS this season.
- The Broncos are 8-6 ATS this season.
- The total has gone over in nine of the Lions’ 14 games this season.
- The total has gone under in eight of the Broncos’ 14 games this season.
- The Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Lions are 0-5 SU in their last five road games.
- The total has gone over in four of the Broncos’ last six games.
Prop Bet
Broncos under 23
The Lions’ defense has been very bad this season, but Drew Lock showed last week that he is still a rookie and has a lot to learn. With the weather always able to impact games in Denver in December, it is likely that Lock will struggle again even against the weak Lions’ defense. The O/U of 23 is a big number for this offense, especially since one area they will really be able to take advantage is the rushing attack. That will surely slow down the game, and if it does, it’s possible the Broncos only need somewhere between 17 and 21 points to win this game.
Bottom Line
The Lions have been horrible since their 2-0-1 SU and 3-1 ATS start. No matter where the line falls, the Lions always seem to be on the wrong side of the number. They’re an abysmal 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, and the defense can’t stop anyone. However, should the Broncos, with Drew Lock at the helm, ever be a near touchdown favorite over anyone? After their performance last week against Kansas City, it’s hard to put much faith in this Broncos’ offense, and while the Lions’ offense has been far from impressive, they’re still managing to put up points, especially late in games when the outcome has already been decided. I fully expect the Broncos to win, but this is too many points. The Lions keep it close, and maybe even need a late touchdown to cover, but they get it done.
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.