Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals Odds & Game Pick (2020)

The late afternoon window will give us a battle of two of the more underrated quarterbacks in the National Football League. Matthew Stafford, for some reason blamed for not having the supporting cast to lead to success, has been one of the most prolific passers in the league since he entered the NFL, certainly on a per-game basis. Kyler Murray is an offensive dynamo who has yet to truly unleash on the NFL, he has shown and is still showing flashes, but if he puts it all together, even for just one game, the world will be able to see the sort of unique talent Murray truly is. It will only be a matter of time before he is mentioned in the same breath as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers. It should be a fun one.

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Overview

The Detroit Lions have struggled to find an offensive rhythm without top receiver Kenny Golladay, but hope to have him back for Week 3. Their 0-2 start to the season is highly disappointing given that they faced the Chicago Bears in Week 1. Their defense still has not been built to the level that they can trust them to help them win games, and that is a problem for an offense that needs D'Andre Swift and Kenny Golladay playing near peak form to be at its best. If they don’t shape up fast Matthew Stafford is going to have to start worrying about Trevor Lawrence. 

The Arizona Cardinals have started the season with an excellent 2-0 record, and the way their schedule has shaken out, the could very well be 5-0 before they face their first real test of the season. San Francisco was a marquee victory that the Cardinals had to come from behind to win, but they generally looked like the stronger team on both sides of the ball. Detroit should not present much of a threat, but the Cardinals are going to need to be careful not to play down to the level of their opponent. Despite not showing it yet this season, this Lions team has the chance to be dangerous offensively.

Trends

• Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six road contests 
• Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five contests 
• Over is 4-1 in the Lions last five contests 
• Over is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven contests against teams with a losing record
• Home team 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two teams 

Prop Bets

Kyler Murray over 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
Watching Kyler Murray finally decide to use his legs more frequently has been a sight to behold. Ninth in the NFL with 158 rushing yards through two contests, Murray will no doubt look to escape the pocket and take rock upfield multiple times in this contest. Expect the Lions to commit a QB spy, but stopping the elite scramblers takes more than just a single linebacker lined up hoping to get a good angle on the quarterback when he becomes a ball carrier. Murray has rushed for an insane 7.5 yards per carry en route to 79 rushing yards per game. The Lions will not be able to contain him if he meets his season average of 11.5 carries. Take the over at BetMGM. 

Final Thoughts

When I first saw this total it made little sense. While these are two good offensive teams when healthy, placing the number so high felt foolhardy. However, this line has stayed relatively stable all week, which means that there has indeed been action on both sides. All of the Cardinals trends except for one point to the under. The over is 6-1 in Cardinals last seven contests against teams with a losing record. Detroit cannot stop anyone right now, and the over has gone 4-1 in the Lions last five contests. This contest could easily hit the 50 point mark, but getting to 56 is another story. Both teams would be content to run the ball to keep the other team off the field, and while I do think that 50 is doable, the 56 has a much lower win probability than all the numbers between 48-54. Take the under

The consensus point spread for this contest is probably higher than it would have been if Kenny Golladay were healthy for the first two weeks of the season. With that being said, the Arizona Cardinals have looked good enough to cover the -5.5 line. The key trends lend more support for a Cardinals cover as the Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five contests, while the Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six road contests. This one will be a sweat, but take the stronger team playing at home to win by six or more points. 

Pick: Cardinals -5.5 (-110) & Under 55.5 (-115)

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