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Dolphins vs. Chargers: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Prediction (Week 14)

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Week 14 should end with an absolute bang, as the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers square off in a pivotal game in the AFC playoff race.

The Dolphins have been one of the league’s biggest surprises, as head coach Mike McDaniel and receiver Tyreek Hill have rejuvenated Tua Tagovailoa’s career. Meanwhile, the Chargers have been one of the league’s bigger disappointments. Injury luck hasn’t been on their side, but Los Angeles continues to come up small in the biggest moments.

With that being said, is now the time to back Los Angeles as 3.5-point underdogs? Let’s break down this Sunday night showdown.

Dolphins vs. Chargers: NFL Sunday Night Football Odds, Picks & Prediction (Week 14)

Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, Total 52.5

The Chargers’ Offense Might Finally Be at Full Strength

Justin Herbert might have his full plethora of weapons for the first time since… I’m not even sure. After an injury-plagued year for both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it appears as if both will suit up for this primetime showdown.

That’s great news for Herbert, who has been held back by poor weaponry, terrible line play and poor coaching. But it gets even better, as L.A. matches up pretty well with this Miami defense.

Miami ranks 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 20th in adjusted sack rate. So not only is Miami sub-par in coverage, but they also don’t rush the passer effectively. That means Herbert should have time to throw and use his rocket arm to connect in the deep and intermediate parts of the field. But even if the deep throws aren’t there, Herbert should be able to get the ball to Austin Ekeler against a Miami defense that’s yielded the 10th-most receiving yards to opposing tailbacks.

Defensively, Los Angeles might match up decently with his Dolphins’ offense. The Chargers are 16th in pass defense DVOA and 30th against the run. However, the Dolphins’ offense is predicated on its aerial attack. Miami ranks 28th in the league with a 37% rush rate and ranks 14th in rushing DVOA.

Dolphins Seeking a Bounce Back 

Miami is coming off its worst defeat of the year against San Francisco, a game in which Tua Tagovailoa completed just 54.5% of his passes and threw two picks. The problem was pressure, as Tagovailoa was under duress all game and was sacked three times.

San Francisco is eighth in adjusted sack rate and has one of the best stop units in the league. The Chargers’ defense shouldn’t present as much of a challenge without Joey Bosa, as Los Angeles ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate.

The Dolphins’ defense specializes against the run, where it ranks ninth in DVOA and fourth in adjusted line yards. However, that might not matter as much against the Chargers who rank 31st in rush rate.

Prediction & Best Bet 

This feels like a good spot to back the Chargers, as scary as that might sound. Los Angeles matches up well with the Dolphins on both sides of the field. And Justin Herbert should finally have time to throw to his full stable of pass catchers. The key will be whether Los Angeles can generate enough pressure on Tagovailoa and limit big plays from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

I also think we’re in store for plenty of scoring. Neither of these defenses are dominant, and a healthy Chargers offense should be able to answer whenever the Dolphins strike. At the very least, this should be an excellent game to watch.

The pick: Chargers +3.5 (play to +3), lean over 52.5

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