Dolphins vs Jaguars NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 1)
Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 1 Betting Primer>>
Miami (MIA) vs. Jacksonville (JAC): MIA -3.5
Sides
- Miami was 6-3 ATS at home in 2023, including a perfect 4-0 through October.
- They are 10-4 ATS at home as favorites (71%).
- The Dolphins have won 19 of their last 23 home games.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games.
- But the Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games.
- The 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars were 7-4 overall as a favorite in 2023 while just 2-4 as an underdog.
- Miami is sub-20% ATS as an underdog. 1-5 overall in 2023.
- Miami did not win a game in 2023 while trailing at halftime.
Totals
- Three of the Jags' last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Jaguars' last five season openers has gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in five of their last eight games.
- Games averaged 49 points scored in Miami in 2023 (4-5 toward the over).
Overall
If you think Colts-Texans will be fun, buckle up for Dolphins-Jaguars (assuming the weather holds up). This should be another easy shootout between two offenses that have major advantages over the defenses they will face. Injuries and free agency eviscerated Miami's defensive line during the offseason. Jalen Ramsey is ‘hopeful” to play in this game.
The Jaguars’ pass defense was horrible last season, and they didn't do much in the offseason to upgrade the secondary.
Only four QBs the Jags faced in 2023 failed to surpass their passing yards projection.
Last season, the Dolphins offense came out of the gates blazing. Against this undermanned Jaguars defense, we should expect similar results in Week 1. But that doesn't mean Jacksonville will go down quietly.
Jacksonville was teed up last season to take the AFC South. They were the heavy betting favorites to start the offseason and were 8-3 at the start of December, with two of their three losses against the teams that played in the Super Bowl. They lost the remaining 5 of 6 games and missed the playoffs entirely. Christian Kirk missed all those games after getting hurt in Week 13's OT loss to the Bengals. Trevor Lawrence played through a high ankle sprain, concussion, and shoulder A/C joint sprain. He missed only one game but was clearly not operating even close to 100%. The Jacksonville OL was also not at 100%. Cam Robinson missed Weeks 12-16. Ezra Cleveland missed games between Weeks 7-14. Walker Little missed Week 14.
The Jaguars were "the" hype team entering last year's offseason, but C.J. Stroud’s Houston Texans have replaced them. Buy the dip and admit we were just a year too early with the Jags.
Lawrence led the NFL in expected passing yards per game in 2023. They are going to SLING it this matchup as they look to keep pace with Miami's red-hot offense. Note that Miami might not have the South Beach heat advantage like they traditionally do in September home matchups, with DUVAL county familiar with Florida conditions.
Props
- Travis Etienne had at least 2.5 catches in 14 of 17 games last season. He exceeded his 20.5 receiving yards prop in 11 of 17 games last season.
- Jonnu Smith is way down in the pecking order regarding targets in the Dolphins offense. He's behind the top two WRs and pass-catching RBs like De'Von Achane.
- Achane is the preferred pass-catching RB in the Dolphins backfield. That's how his usage was last season, and it carried over into this year's preseason usage. Expect him to get peppered with underneath targets. The Jaguars allowed the most catches to RBs in 2023.
My Picks