Dolphins vs. Packers: NFL Thursday Night Football Preview (Week 13)
Miami and Green Bay are both trending up heading into the final matchup on the three-game NFL Thanksgiving slate. Thursday Night Football features the 5-6 Miami Dolphins on the road against the 8-3 Green Bay Packers, with each team looking to extend its winning streak in freezing temperatures.
We’ve seen Miami’s offense ascend during QB Tua Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup, going 3-2, including three straight wins by eight or more points. Green Bay survived a scare against Chicago on the road and dominated San Francisco in the trenches against a short-handed 49ers offense to coast to a 38-10 win in Week 12.
The Dolphins’ defense is underrated, while Green Bay’s offense has become more run-centric, feeding RB Josh Jacobs the majority of touches to control the clock and sustain drives that end in touchdowns. This game should be highly entertaining and come down to the wire in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field on Thursday Night Football.
My NFL Thursday Night Football Week 12 Preview wound up losing under 36.5 total points during Cleveland’s 24-19 win in the snow against Pittsburgh, snapping our multi-week winning streak on Thursday Night Football. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more NFL free bets and weekly analysis.
NFL Week 13 Thursday Night Football Preview
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Spread: Miami +3.5 (-120) | Green Bay -3.5 (-102)
Moneyline: Miami (+148) | Green Bay (-176)
Total: Over 47.5 (-112) | Under 47.5 (-108)
Miami and Green Bay have both covered five times against the spread in 11 games played, so neither of these teams has been consistent in this betting market. Each offense has had weeks without their franchise quarterback, which skews this data, especially for Miami’s exotic offense, which relies on quick passing game to function as its de facto rushing attack.
Green Bay is playing without star CB Jaire Alexander and LB Edgerrin Cooper on Thursday night, while missing WR Romeo Doubs on offense. The Dolphins are also banged up on defense, already ruling out CB Kendall Fuller and linebackers Tyus Bowser and Anthony Walker Jr.
Miami has lost five of the last six head-to-head matchups against Green Bay, including their last meeting in 2022, but a lot has changed with these rosters since that previous meeting in South Beach. The Dolphins could easily be 5-0 with Tagovailoa under center after making his return from the concussion protocol, losing on walk-off field goals to Arizona and Buffalo.
Since those two losses, Miami is 3-0 SU and has won each game by at least eight points, including a road win over the Los Angeles Rams. WR Jaylen Waddle was unlocked against New England in Week 12 and the Dolphins built a 24-0 lead into halftime to gain momentum and confidence ahead of their road trip to Green Bay.
Green Bay has turned to RB Josh Jacobs to be the bell-cow in their offense, churning out yards and touchdowns to beat Chicago and San Francisco since their Week 10 bye. QB Jordan Love has become more of a game manager, although he still takes several deep shots, especially off of play action, to keep defenders on their toes. The Packers have 138 or more rushing yards in three of their last four games but Miami has held every opponent under 83 rushing yards during their three-game winning streak.
This game will come down to how effective Miami is at containing Jacobs out of the backfield. The Dolphins rank top-ten in pass and run defense, while allowing 21.5 points per game, which is 11th-best in the NFL. Conversely, the Packers’ defense is very good at forcing turnovers, averaging two per game, but they fail to generate a ton of pressure. Tagovailoa is known for getting the ball out quick into space, so expect Miami’s offense to be productive with all of its starters healthy and finding a rhythm.
Miami has failed to cover the spread in seven straight games against NFC North opponents and has also lost seven straight times as an underdog after a win. However, we’re through the key number of three at +3.5 and the Dolphins are the more desperate team at 5-6. Miami hasn’t lost by more than a field goal since Tagovailoa’s return, so let’s stake a unit on the Dolphins to cover +3.5 on the road against the Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Prediction: Miami +3.5 (-120)
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.