Dolphins vs. Raiders NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 11)

Introducing the Week 1 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.

Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.

Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 1 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Dolphins vs. Raiders.

Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 11 Betting Primer>>

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

Sides:

• The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games.
• The Raiders are 12-6-1 ATS over their last 19 games.
• LV is 13-6-1 ATS at home (67%). They are 5-3-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-6 straight up.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last eight road games.
• The Raiders have lost 10 of their last 12 road games.
• The Dolphins have lost 10 of their last 12 games.
• Miami has failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games.
• Miami is 25 percent ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has been 3-8 overall since 2023. 5-9 as an underdog in their last 14 applicable games.
• Miami did not win a game in 2023 after trailing at halftime. That changed for the first time in Week 1 versus the Jaguars. They reverted to their old ways during their three-game losing streak. In their Week 5 and Week 7 wins against the Patriots/Colts, they came back from first-half deficits.
• The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record.
• The Dolphins have lost 14 of their last 16 games as underdogs.
• The Dolphins have won 20 of their last 27 home games.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five home games.
• Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Dolphins have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

Totals:

• Ten of the Raiders' last 19 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-11 toward the under.
• Five of the Raiders' last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
• Four of the Raiders’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Raiders’ last six home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Dolphins’ last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Miami is 2-2 toward the over at home this season (44 points per game).
• Five of the Dolphins' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Raiders have lost each of their last five games, whereas Miami is 0-4 ATS at home this season. Based on the surface trends analysis, this game screams like a Miami win with a backdoor cover by Las Vegas.

Funny enough, we had this same matchup last season in Week 11, with LV visiting the Dolphins as 13.5-point underdogs. Miami was off a bye week and viewed as a much better team. However, it didn't matter, given the Raiders only lost 20-13, with the first half finishing 14-13 in favor of Miami.

The 7.5 points seem like a lot for a Dolphins team that has one win this season with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback.

They were seven-point underdogs when Las Vegas played the Bengals on the road in Week 9. I don't think they are nearly as overmatched against the Dolphins, especially coming off a bye week against a team playing on a short week.

We saw this same phenomenon play out (a team off a bye week playing a team off MNF) with SF playing Tampa in Week 9. Had it not been for a flurry of mixed FGs, the 49ers would have covered the spread.

Give me the Raiders to continue their streak of strong play on the road against a vastly overrated Dolphins team at home.

As for the total, I'll just chase the trends. Under 44 points. Raiders' road game shade toward the under, and this Dolphins offense hardly looked like a juggernaut against the Rams.

Props:

On the ground in Week 9, Alexander Mattison led the Raiders with nine carries for 36 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry and a long of 7 yards. Ameer Abdullah chipped in with four carries for 12 yards (3.0 YPC), while Zamir White found the end zone on one of his six carries but only gained a total of 10 yards (1.7 YPC). Ridder and Minshew each had one carry, but neither was able to generate positive yardage.

Mattison and White split carries (six apiece) in the first half. Mattison's snaps fell to 39%, his lowest since Week 4. It was also beyond perplexing that the team put White into the game in the red zone over Mattison, something they did the reverse of early in the year when White was the starter.

What a backfield mess. With a new offensive coordinator brought in and Antonio Pierce continuing to pound the table for White, I wouldn't be surprised if we see another backfield flip this week in favor of White over Mattison.

Mattison has gone over 38 rushing yards only twice this season, and it took 23 carries to get there in his most recent effort. Also, the Dolphins defense has delivered three straight unders to RBs they have faced in as many weeks.

My Picks:

• Raiders +7.5
• Under 44
• Alexander Mattison UNDER 38.5 rushing yards