Duke vs. Siena: NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview

by BettingPros Staff |
Mar 15, 2026

The 2026 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first round 2026 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our NCAA Tournament predictions and preview for Duke vs. Siena.

2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions & Preview: Duke vs. Siena

Here are the odds for this opening-round matchup of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Let’s dive into our preview and predictions for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Duke 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Any Duke preview has to start with Cameron Boozer. The freshman forward has lived up to every bit of the billing as the heavy favorite for the Naismith College Player of the Year Award. We don't have to get into specifics, but if Boozer keeps developing into March, it will be a genuine shock if the Blue Devils don’t make the Final Four.

The Blue Devils rank in the top five nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Duke and Arizona are the only teams sitting in the top five on both ends. Maliq Brown is an engine on that defense, ranking in the top five nationally in steal percentage despite coming off the bench most of the season. Boozer, Brown and Patrick Ngongba are three of the top 15 defensive players in the country, per EvanMiya. An average height of 79.4 inches makes Duke the second-tallest team in the country, and the Blue Devils rank in the top 10 in rebounding margin while routinely forcing teams deep into the shot clock.

The experience question is real. Duke ranks 308th in DI experience, per KenPom, with less than one year of average experience on the roster. When things got tight in their 68-63 win over Michigan, the Blue Devils leaned on Boozer late, and he responded to seal it. But leaning on freshmen and sophomores in tournament games is a different animal. Injuries to Ngongba and Caleb Foster are concerning, and we saw Duke struggle a bit in postseason play. Isaiah Evans, a 37% three-point shooter, has stepped into a bigger role with an electric ACC Tournament performance, and Dame Sarr has given Duke another long, versatile option. But how much will the Blue Devils need to lean on Boozer throughout the tournament? With Boozer off the floor this year, this team drops to 17th overall while dropping from fifth to 74th offensively, per Hoop Explorer. If Boozer gets into foul trouble or gets locked up, Duke could be in trouble, especially with lesser depth behind him now.

Of course, these are big ifs. This is the best team in the nation and should be the title favorite, full stop. Per Hoop Explorer, even when Foster and Ngongba are off the court, Duke's net rating stays No. 2 overall. And it seems like Ngongba should be back for the tournament. It's hard to say this team is more talented than last year's squad, but Duke certainly has the blue-collar attitude where it appears ready to take care of business. This team went 11-2 against ranked opponents in the regular season, clinched the 22nd ACC regular-season title in program history and knocked off Michigan in a marquee neutral-site win. Sure, you can point at the ACC Tournament play, but the conference tourney wasn’t what the Blue Devils had their eyes on. There is enough talent and solid coaching for this to be the deepest run Duke has made in several years.

Siena 2026 NCAA Tournament Preview

Gerry McNamara’s Saints are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The engine of the whole run was sophomore Gavin Doty, who averaged more than 21 points and nearly seven rebounds over the three-game MAAC tournament stretch, shot it well from three and hit 17-of-19 free-throw attempts in the semifinal and Championship Game combined. He and Justice Shoats give this team something difficult to defend. Both are efficient in the mid-range and paint area, and both grade in the upper percentiles nationally for efficiency in those spots. What Siena does on defense is also worth taking seriously. They rank inside the top 55 nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed and limit foul shots at an elite rate. The 6-foot-7 Francis Folefac and the 7-foot-0 Riley Mulvey frontcourt pairing - a combination that only truly emerged in the final four games after Antonio Chandler was ruled ineligible - has been effective in a small sample. Siena ranks 69th in the country with the 28th adjusted defense since March 2.

The biggest knock is Siena's 347th-ranked strength of schedule. Siena’s only game against a KenPom top-125 opponent was a 21-point loss at Indiana. The Saints went 1-4 against KenPom top-200 teams, with their only win coming in the MAAC Championship Game against 179th-ranked Merrimack. Sienna’s rotation is razor-thin, and Doty and Shoats are both logging close to 40 minutes per game. The opponent they draw will be the most difficult opponent they’ve faced all season by a wide margin, and their sub-200-ranked offense might not be good enough to shock anyone.

More NCAA Tournament Predictions & Previews

#1 Duke vs. #16 Siena
#8 Ohio State vs. #9 TCU
#5 St. John’s vs. #12 Northern Iowa
#4 Kansas vs. #13 Cal Baptist
#6 Louisville vs. #11 South Florida
#3 Michigan State vs. #14 North Dakota State
#7 UCLA vs. #10 UCF
#2 UConn vs. #15 Furman

#1 Arizona vs. #16 LIU
#8 Villanova vs. #9 Utah State
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 High Point
#4 Arkansas vs. #13 Hawai’i
#11 Texas vs. North Carolina State
#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Kennesaw State
#7 Miami (FL) vs. #10 Missouri
#2 Purdue vs. #15 Queens

#16 UMBC vs. Howard
#8 Georgia vs. #9 Saint Louis
#5 Texas Tech vs. #12 Akron
#4 Alabama vs. #13 Hofstra
#11 Miami OH vs. SMU
#3 Virginia vs. #14 Wright State
#7 Kentucky vs. #10 Santa Clara
#2 Iowa State vs. #15 Tennessee State

#16 Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh
#8 Clemson vs. #9 Iowa
#5 Vanderbilt vs. #12 McNeese
#4 Nebraska vs. #13 Troy
#6 North Carolina vs. #11 VCU
#3 Illinois vs. #14 Penn
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Texas A&M
#2 Houston vs. #15 Idaho

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