Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview: Early Best Bets
As I watched Harrison Butker line up and kick the game-winning field goal that sent the Kansas City Chiefs to Super Bowl LVII, there was one prevailing thought in my head:
The Bengals winning would make for a better Super Bowl matchup with the Eagles.
Ultimately, the Chiefs were able to overcome Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain and a rash of injuries at wide receiver to advance to their third Super Bowl in four seasons.
Eagles-Chiefs it is. Andy Reid vs. the franchise he couldn’t get to the promised land with. The established Patrick Mahomes against the electric Jalen Hurts. Travis Kelce vs. Jason Kelce in a brother bowl! While this may not have been the best Super Bowl matchup possible, it’s a darn good one filled with plenty of interesting storylines.
And now, we begin the 13 days of analyzing every aspect of this matchup. While having an initial impression is good, remember that your opinion of the game can change. We are sure to get more information between now and kickoff, so be mindful and flexible as you finalize your betting card.
For now, here’s my initial impression of the Super Bowl LVII matchup.
Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>
Super Bowl LVII: Early Best Bets
Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2) | Total 49.5
After initially opening the game as a PK or Chiefs -1, the line has rapidly flipped in Philadelphia’s favor, as knee-jerk reactions have moved the Eagles into the favored role.
Paths to the Super Bowl
We’ve got a battle between the No. 1 seeds in both the AFC and the NFC. The Eagles were far and beyond the best team in the NFC and proved it during the playoffs. They destroyed the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers by a 69-14 combined margin.
But Philadelphia’s 31-7 win over San Fran in the NFC Championship Game wasn’t impressive. The Eagles only out-gained the Niners 269-164. Philly averaged just 3.8 yards per play, while San Francisco averaged 3.6 yards per play.
The Eagles benefitted from San Francisco losing quarterback Brock Purdy to an elbow injury early on. That forced journeyman Josh Johnson into action, and he was as awful as you’d expect. Then Johnson left the game with a concussion, forcing Purdy to re-enter the game despite being unable to throw a football.
What was most concerning was Jalen Hurts’ performance against an elite 49ers defense. Hurts was unsettled all day, completing just 15-of-25 passes for 121 yards while rushing for just 39 yards. The Niners had a tremendous game plan that kept Hurts bottled up in the pocket by not over-pursuing him, and it succeeded. Kansas City will look to mimic this strategy with Chris Jones and Frank Clark leading the way against an elite Eagles offensive line. If you can force Hurts to become a true pocket passer, you can disrupt this Philly offense.
Kansas City earned their Super Bowl bid in a much more dramatic fashion, with some questionable involvement from the officials. The storyline coming into the game surrounded Patrick Mahomes and his high-ankle sprain, and while he didn’t improvise with his legs as much, he generally looked himself, throwing for 326 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The fact Mahomes won this game is even more impressive, considering he lost receivers Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster to injury. The Chiefs’ defense also lost slot corner L’Jarius Sneed early on. That stressed Kansas City’s depth in the second half, and it showed. The Chiefs were held to 186 total yards in the second half as Cincinnati’s defense doubled Travis Kelce and dared anyone else to beat them. And if not for a Joseph Ossai late hit, we could be writing about the Bengals advancing to consecutive Super Bowls.
Give Kansas City’s defense credit for doing what the Buffalo Bills couldn’t do a week ago: they got to Joe Burrow, sacking him five times and flustering him the entire game. And that was ultimately the difference.
Matchup Breakdown
Both teams strong in the trenches
It’s an overly-used cliche in football, especially with two incredible quarterbacks featured in this game. But I have a feeling this game is going to come down to the trenches.
Kansas City and Philadelphia both boast top-1o offensive lines. Kansas City ranks second in adjusted line yards, and Philadelphia ranks sixth. The Chiefs allowed just 26 sacks. Philadelphia allowed 44 sacks, but only 31 in the games Hurts started.
Defensively, both teams get to the quarterback at elite rates. Philly led the league with 70 sacks and an 11.2% adjusted sack rate. Kansas City ranked second with 55 sacks and third in adjusted sack rate. However, both of these units can be run on, as they rank 21st and 22nd in adjusted line yards.
Philadelphia holds the depth advantage on both sides of the line, especially defensively.
Four Eagles posted 11 sacks this season, and Fletcher Cox had seven. Meanwhile, Jones accounted for 15.5 sacks, with no other Chief posting more than six sacks.
Hurts’ mobility could give Eagles a major edge.
Kansas City has the quarterback advantage, as I’m assuming Mahomes enters this game healthier with two weeks to rest his injured ankle. But the Eagles might be able to exploit a crack in the Chiefs’ defense with their quarterback.
The Chiefs surrendered the fifth-most rushing yards in the NFL to opposing quarterbacks.
Here’s a look at what some QBs did on the ground against K.C.
- Malik Wills – 7 carries, 41 yards
- Bryce Perkins – 8 for 45
- Russell Wilson – 4 for 57
- Jarrett Stidham – 7 for 50
Those are a few pretty lousy quarterbacks, but they all had success rushing against the Chiefs. In total, 11 quarterbacks rushed for at least 16 yards against K.C., and Hurts is the most mobile QB the Chiefs will face.
For what it’s worth, Philadelphia gave up the fourth-most yards on the ground to opposing QBs. But mobility obviously isn’t Mahomes’ game, it’s an extension of it. And that could be mitigated by his ankle.
Can the Chiefs win with the ground game?
The Chiefs are obviously a passing team, but that strength will be challenged against an Eagles D that ranks first in pass defense DVOA. But if this Eagles team has a kryptonite, it’s against the run. Philly ranks 21st in rushing DVOA, while Kansas City’s run offense ranks ninth in DVOA.
Isiah Pacheco will be a critical factor, especially considering the injuries Kansas City suffered at receiver in the AFC Championship Game.
And if K.C. pulls off the small upset, Pacheco could be a decent long-shot MVP candidate.
Can the Eagles contain Travis Kelce?
Without Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce has become the true heartbeat of the Chiefs’ offense, if he wasn’t beforehand. If the Eagles are going to win Super Bowl LVII, they will have to at least limit Kelce.
The Eagles D appears up for the task, as they surrendered just 47.1 yards to opposing tight ends this year and just three touchdowns all year. Here’s how some of the best tight ends they faced fared against them:
- T.J. Hockenson (with DET) – 4 catches, 38 yards
- Dalton Schultz – 3 for 43
- Pat Freiermuth – 4 for 57
- Robert Tonyan – 3 for 20
- Evan Engram – 1 for 16
- Cole Kmet – 4 for 25
Of course, none of these guys are remotely close to Kelce. And the health of Kansas City’s receiving corps will dictate how the Eagles handle Kelce in coverage. But assuming Toney and Smith-Schsuter suit up, the Eagles have shown they can limit opposing tight ends this season.
Early Prediction and Pick
The Chiefs have a superstar quarterback, a lovable Hall of Fame head coach, and a team that’s been there before. But Philadelphia feels like the more complete team on both sides of the ball. Their defense is loaded with talent on both sides, and I haven’t even said a word about A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
Betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is a seriously terrifying proposition. But I sense we could see a similar game to Super Bowl LV, in which a loaded Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense flustered Mahomes in a 31-9 drubbing.
I’m not sure the game will be quite as one-sided, as the Chiefs have the experience and plenty of talent. But I like the Eagles at anything below -3 right now.
The pick: Eagles -2 (-110)
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