Eagles vs. Jaguars NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 9)
Introducing the Week 9 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 9 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Eagles vs. Jaguars.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 9 Betting Primer>>
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sides:
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 14 games.
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 12 games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Eagles have lost five of their last nine games as favorites.
- The Eagles are 4-11-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- But at home in their last 21 games - 12-9 ATS as home favorites (57%).
- The Eagles have lost five of their last eight road games.
- Philadelphia ATS on the road: 6-12-1.
- The Eagles have won 13 of their last 15 games against AFC opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Eagles’ last 12 games.
- The Jaguars have lost 11 of their last 14 games.
- The Jaguars have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 road games (not in Jacksonville).
- The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 14 games.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-5 overall as a favorite, dating back to last season. They are just 2-9 as an underdog since the start of last season.
- ATS they are 5-3 as a home underdog and on the money line (71%).
- Jacksonville went 2-0 straight up and ATS in London last season. 1-1 this season.
- The favorites are 6-2 straight up and ATS internationally since last season.
- The only “upset” last season was the Jaguars defeating the Bills after Jacksonville had already spent a week in London playing back-to-back games. After the Jaguars opened up as underdogs last week, they lost as favorites. They beat the Patriots as favorites.
Totals:
- The Eagles are 12-13 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 5-10 toward the over on the road.
- Seven of the Eagles’ last nine road games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The majority of their shootouts have come at home. The Eagles are 7-3 toward the OVER at home since the start of 2023. They are 0-2 toward the over at home this season (39.5 points per game).
- Each of the Jaguars’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Five of the Jaguars' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Jags’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Jaguars have scored 24-plus points in eight of their last 16 games.
- Jacksonville scored 30 or more points five times since 2023. Three of those games came against the Colts.
Overall:
A lot of what comes down to the Eagles' covering the spread is more about their defense than offense. If they hold teams under 20 points, they are 69% ATS in their last sixteen games. The Jaguars have a 19-point implied team total and are dealing with a flurry of injuries to their WRs.
Meanwhile, the Eagles might be starting to build some momentum. They have won three straight games since the bye week and rank first in the fewest points allowed on defense over that span.
Sure, against Deshaun Watson/Daniel Jones, it wasn't impressive. But against Joe Burrow? Now you have my attention.
Jalen Hurts has been taking much better care of the football, and it is playing so much better with A.J. Brown back in the starting lineup. Turnovers figure to play a big part in this matchup.
According to Next Gen Stats, since 2022 the Eagles are 15-0 with a positive turnover differential (most wins without a loss by any team in that span), and 15-11 in games with a negative or even turnover differential.
The Jaguars have 4 takeaways this season (tied for 2nd-fewest in NFL), and a -5 turnover differential (5th-worst in NFL).
No doubt that the Eagles win this game, but I think it could get ugly against an undermanned Jaguars team. Nick Sirianni probably wants to prove a point going up against former Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson.
Props:
Against deep passes this season, the Jaguars rank fifth in attempts, first in yards, second in yards per attempt, third in EPA/pass attempt, and first in separation.
According to Next Gen Stats, A.J. Brown has generated +176 receiving yards over expected this season, the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Brown has hauled in 4 of 7 targets for 170 yards on Go routes this year, resulting in three touchdowns and generating a +15.3 Total EPA (Highest in NFL). Since 2022, Jalen Hurts has been efficient when targeting Brown on Go routes in tight windows, completing 17 of 31 pass attempts for 583 yards and eight touchdowns (five more TDs than the next QB-WR duo).
There's not an Eagles WR receiving yards prop over that I don't love this week.
My Picks: