Eagles vs. Saints NFL Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 3)
Introducing the Week 3 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 3 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Eagles vs. Saints.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 3 Betting Primer>>
Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints
Sides:
- The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
- 1-8 ATS overall in their last nine games played.
- At home in their last 20 games - 12-8 ATS as home favorites.
- The Eagles have lost each of their last four road games.
- The Eagles are 4-10-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
- They covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- The Saints have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.
Totals:
- Four of the Saints’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Eagles are 10-10 O/U since the start of 2023. But they are 3-8 toward the over on the road.
- Both the Saints and Eagles boast top-5 red zone defenses through two games.
Overall:
This line opened as Eagles -3.5 before flipping to Saints -2.5 after the conclusion of Monday Night Football. This might be a slight overreaction to the Eagles' loss - considering they were a dropped pass away from victory.
Or it's bettors swarming toward the New Orleans Saints as the hottest team in the NFL. I've been burned twice by the Saints in back-to-back weeks, so I'm tentatively approaching this marquee contest.
And as it stands two weeks in, the only Saints' game I've projected correctly was with the over last week.
The Saints offense is for real with Klint Kubiak calling the shots, integrating motion and play action at an extremely high rate. Derek Carr has been flawless and has seen the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. When kept clean, Carr is executing the offense at a high level.
As for the Eagles. They should have covered the 5.5-point spread last week. But it's been the same old song-dance with this team since the second-half collapse during last season. Underwhelming. And so far in 2024, we are getting more of the same. The defense still isn't completely fixed. The pressure on the quarterback is non-existent (31st in the NFL).
And the offense is missing their best WR A.J. Brown.
It feels weird in 2024 to view a Derek Carr-favored team against an underdog Eagles squad led by Jalen Hurts. After all, both guys have usually struggled in their respective positions. Carr is 37% ATS as favorite, while Hurts is 46% ATS as an underdog (6-7). But Hurts’ record in his last 8 games? 2-6. Carr? 6-2.
The trends clearly suggest that the Saints by a field goal are the clear play. What could go wrong?
Especially with how bad the Saints have been defending mobile QBs.
Player Props:
Considering I haven't been profitable handicapping Saints games, I am likely going to allocate the majority of my funds towards the props. Specifically, Jalen Hurts' rushing yards. Dennis Allen's defense has always been vulnerable against mobile QBs. In 2023, they ranked 3rd in QB rushing yards allowed. In two of Hurts' prior games against Allen's Saints defenses, he's rushed for his two HIGHEST rushing yardage totals of his NFL career (106,69), including 18 carries in each contest. Hurts - fresh off an 85-yard rushing performance and 13 carries - should continue to terrorize Allen's defense with his legs.
Chris Olave had one of the highest target rates per route run during the NFL preseason. In Week 2, he had 53% percent air yards share and 38% target rate per route run.
But he's been relatively uninvolved with his counting stats due to the Saints' lack of total pass attempts. In a more back-and-forth contest, Olave should fly over 4.5 receptions. He had 4 catches on the Saints' first drive in the second half of Week 2.
My Picks: