Early NFL Futures: Best Bet for Super Bowl LVI Winner (2021)
Odds to win Super Bowl LVI were released before Super Bowl LV even kicked off. Luckily for us, that allows plenty of time to handicap next year’s NFL champion.
A few teams have already staked their claim as one of the league’s elites in 2021, and plenty more are trending upwards, looking to enter the conversation. The best value on the board lies with a team that was just one win away from a trip to the Super Bowl this year and a team that I expect to get even better next year.
The Buffalo Bills currently sit at +1200 to win Super Bowl LVI, tied for the fourth-lowest odds in the league. They were one of the most complete teams in the league in 2020, and they’ll be returning many of their key players in 2021 – most importantly Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs, who are the difference-makers on this team and the two players who have the chance to propel Buffalo to their first Super Bowl victory in team history.
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Josh Allen is Elite
Allen was the target of much ire in his first two seasons in the NFL. He threw just 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 11 starts as a rookie, completing barely half of his passes (52.2%). In year two, he led the Bills to the playoffs but still only completed 58.8% of his throws and made some key mistakes in a first round playoff loss to the Texans. However, year three of the Josh Allen project was a monstrous success, as Allen solidified himself as one of the top-tier quarterbacks in the league.
If Allen takes another leap forward from his 13-win, 37-touchdown (plus eight more on the ground), 69.2%-completion 2020 campaign: watch out, AFC. And another leap forward is entirely possible thanks to his incredible chemistry with his favorite receiver: Stefon Diggs.
Stefon Diggs is Elite, Too
Diggs had his best season as a pro in 2020, catching 127 passes for 1,535 yards – both best in the NFL. He caught 76.5% of his targets, the best mark of his career and a testament to his chemistry with Allen, which ranked fifth among wide receivers with at least 50 targets. It’s pretty remarkable for such a connection to develop between first-year teammates during a COVID-riddled offseason. While it’s pretty difficult to improve on such productive numbers, it’s also not out of the question for this pairing to become even more dynamic in year two.
The Bills are Trending Up, While Other Contenders Are Trending Down
There’s some overhaul going on in the AFC right now, helping clear Buffalo’s path to the Super Bowl. The usual mainstays – like New England and Pittsburgh – aren’t playoff locks by any means. The sometimes pesky Colts and Texans will both (probably) need new quarterbacks. And the up-and-coming teams like the Chargers and Browns are definite playoff contenders. But, Super Bowl contenders? Not yet.
Realistically, the only team in the AFC better than the Bills right now is the Chiefs. If the two meet in another AFC Championship game, there will be little-to-no shock-factor for Allen and the Bills like there was this year. They’ll have been there before, and they’ll be far more prepared. And of course, if they get to the Super Bowl, throw records and trends and history out the window; anything can happen.
Buffalo has a great head coach in Sean McDermott, and they were miraculously able to retain offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who was one of the hottest names on the coaching carousel this offseason. Buffalo will have to navigate the salary cap, which could be a slight concern if they’re unable to bring back players like Matt Milano or shore up positions in need of depth like running back and defensive line. But, the Bills stars are ready to take the next step and finally bring the most passionate fanbase in the NFL a championship.
Best bet to win Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo Bills +1200
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.