Early NFL Futures: Best Bets for Division Winners (2021)
With the 2020 NFL season just barely in the rearview mirror, it’s already time for teams to start preparing to make a run at Super Bowl LVI. This means it’s already time for us to start researching our picks for the 2021 division winners.
Odds have yet to be posted, but I’ve selected three teams who took big leaps forward this year to keep an eye on when the market opens.
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Los Angeles Rams to win NFC West
This one may not be the big-time plus-money odds pick everyone is looking for right off the bat, but in a really tough NFC West, I still think there’s value on the team I think is best. Los Angeles doesn’t have a first-round pick for the next few years, so they’re in full-on win-now mode, which is great for us.
The Rams’ defense was the best in the league in 2020, and Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will be back to lead the charge in 2021. The team lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley to the crosstown-rival Chargers, but they brought in Raheem Morris to fill the void, so even if there is a bit of a step back to start the season, it’ll be minimal. Especially because of the sheer talent Morris has to work with.
Los Angeles also already made the biggest splash of the offseason—until Deshaun Watson is dealt, that is—when they sent Jared Goff and picks to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. While he may not be in his physical prime anymore, Stafford is still a really good, tough-as-nails quarterback. What’s more: Sean McVay wanted him badly, so it’s more likely than not he knows exactly how they can be successful together.
Finally, while I said earlier that the NFC West is really tough, I actually think some teams are trending in the wrong direction. Los Angeles is simply a better team than both Arizona and San Francisco right now, and if Seattle’s offense looks as bad as it did down the stretch in 2020, they’ll be no threat to the Rams.
Los Angeles may open as the favorite to win the division, and that’s alright with me. I’ll still trust their coach/quarterback combo to help me cash a winning ticket.
Miami Dolphins to win AFC East
We should get great odds on the Dolphins, who I think could put together the most complete team in the AFC East when it’s all said and done this offseason. Of course, a ton of that hinges on Tua Tagovailoa, who didn’t look great in his rookie campaign, but their coaching staff is great and their defense is fantastic.
It’s going to be tough to knock off the Buffalo Bills, especially considering how great Josh Allen has become, how strong of a coach Sean McDermott is, and how much Stefon Diggs has added to that offense. But, I’m willing to put my trust in another great coach, Brian Flores, to bring the same energy and toughness to this Dolphins team in 2021.
I mentioned Tagovailoa before, and he’s definitely a concern considering he’s playing the most important position on the field. But, I’m not totally convinced the Dolphins are as behind him as they say they are. I’m a huge believer in “if there’s smoke, there’s fire†and while I’m not saying they’re absolutely going to land Deshaun Watson, they’re clearly evaluating all their options at the quarterback position.
They also have the number three pick in the draft, thanks to the Texans. Regardless of what they do with that pick – whether they trade up, trade down, take a quarterback, take a weapon like Devonta Smith – they’re going to drastically improve this team. A team that won 10 games and held opponents to the third-lowest points per game average in the AFC.
I touched on their defense earlier as well, which was a relatively young unit in 2021. They forced a turnover in all 16 games this season, and have forced a turnover in 22 straight games dating back to 2019. They’re really well-coached, and I love the direction they’re headed.
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Cleveland Browns to win AFC North
The Browns are going to be the trendy pick of the offseason. It feels like they’ve been the trendy pick to win the AFC North each of the last two offseasons, but I think 2021 is the year they finally conquer the mainstays of the division and capture the crown.
Cleveland’s defense wasn’t great in 2020 – they ranked 21st in yards allowed per game – but they still managed 11 wins and their first playoff berth in 18 years. Baker Mayfield took a huge step forward this season, and coupled with quite possibly the best one-two running back punch in the league, the Browns offense could be scary next season.
In his first two years in the league, Mayfield tossed a combined 35 interceptions – a 3.4% interception rate. This year, he threw just eight picks and had a 1.6% interception rate. And he spent a big portion of the year without Odell Beckham Jr. Kevin Stefanski has been a revelation for a Cleveland franchise that’s dealt with a revolving door at the head coaching position as well.
As far as the rest of the division: I expect Pittsburgh to take a step back. After an 11-0 start, they completely fell off the map, and Ben Roethlisberger, who very well could be back next year, looked beat up and worn down in the last few weeks of the year. The Ravens are still a good team, but it looks as though their run-heavy offense has been solved a bit. And the Bengals are trending in the right direction, but they’re not a threat to win the division just yet. All the pieces are in place for the Browns to win their division for the first time since 1989.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.