Early NFL Futures: Best Bets for MVP (2021)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV in resounding fashion, but we all know it’s never too early to start thinking about the 2021 season. Let’s start by examining the NFL MVP market.
Right now, Patrick Mahomes is unsurprisingly the favorite and is +500 to win the award, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Behind him is reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers, at +800. While both of these two deserve to be the favorites, I don’t love the value on either of them at these current prices.
However, there are a handful of players I’d take a flyer on at their current MVP odds. Here are my five early ideas for the 2021 NFL MVP.
Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook
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Deshaun Watson +1700
I was surprised to see Watson listed at 17/1 to win MVP, as he’s a proven superstar entering the height of his powers. However, I understand this current price accounts for the uncertainty surrounding him.
We don’t even know where Watson will be playing this year. The likely landing spots are Miami, New York, Carolina, and San Francisco. But there’s also a chance he stays in Houston, which would be the worst-case scenario. Watson has threatened to sit out the 2021 season if he isn’t traded, making this bet even riskier.
I don’t think this situation gets that dire, however. There are plenty of teams willing to offer a king’s ransom for Watson’s services, and almost all of them would offer better surrounding talent than Houston.
The dream scenario would be San Francisco, a team that’s a year removed from a Super Bowl appearance. All we really need is Watson to get out of Houston and land on a playoff-contending team where his talent can shine.
Josh Allen +1300
Allen was an MVP candidate through the first half of the season before his play trailed off. Buffalo will be one of the most popular Super Bowl futures this upcoming season, and Allen is a big reason why.
Allen took tremendous strides in his third season, improving his completion percentage to nearly 70%. He also threw for 4,544 yards and scored 45 total touchdowns.
If Allen can take another step as a passer, then a 50-touchdown season and an MVP award is well within the realm of possibilities.
Justin Herbert +1900
If you’re looking for a long shot to win MVP, why not Justin Herbert? In his rookie season, Herbert proved he belonged in the NFL, throwing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns. He was one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL last season after being widely regarded as the third-best quarterback in his draft class.
There’s certainly the risk of a sophomore slump, but I expect Herbert to only improve in Year 2. Anthony Lynn is gone, which means the Chargers hopefully won’t botch half of their games in the final two minutes. He’ll now get to work with new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, a member of the Sean Payton coaching tree. He also has a strong supporting cast headlined by Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler.
Herbert’s a great value play at 19/1.
Non-QB Long Shots: Dalvin Cook (+6600) and Jonathan Taylor (+12500)
A running back hasn’t won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Before that, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson were the last tailbacks to win the award in 2005 and 2006, respectively.
With so many great quarterbacks in the league, it’s hard to imagine a running back winning the award. If Derrick Henry couldn’t win it after rushing for more than 2,000 yards, I’m not sure anyone can.
That’s why I’ve labeled these as long-shot flyers. I prefer the prices of Cook and Taylor to Henry and Christian McCaffrey, who are only +3300. Given the unlikelihood of a tailback winning the award, I’d need much longer odds to consider them.
Both Cook and Taylor should be in store for highly productive seasons on good offenses. Cook could be the next running back to rush for 2,000 yards, especially as Minnesota’s faith in Kirk Cousins declines. After a slow start to his rookie season, Taylor showed the potential we had been waiting for. With a strong offensive line paving the way for him, Taylor could win the rushing title in 2021 with a full workload.
Place your bet for Cook and Taylor >>
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.