Early NFL Futures: Best Bets to Make the Playoffs (2021)
We’ve still got a long way to go until the 2021 season kicks off. Free agency has yet to begin, and the Draft is still to come, but a few teams started heading in the right direction in 2020 that I think have a real shot at making the playoffs in 2021. Playoff odds have yet to be released, but here’s who to look out for when the market opens.
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San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers play in, as it currently stands, the best division in the NFL, so I think we’re going to get solid odds here on the team that finished last in the NFC West.
San Francisco had two big problems in 2020: injuries and quarterback play. The 49ers were one of the most injury-riddled teams this past season, and at one point in October, they had 14 players on injured reserve – most in the NFL. It wasn’t just the quantity of players missing time for the 49ers; it was the quality of players as well. Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Richard Sherman, Trent Williams, and Jimmy Garoppolo all missed significant time, yet San Francisco still managed to win six games of a grueling schedule. Just getting their key players back healthy in 2021 is a step in the right direction.
Speaking of Jimmy Garoppolo, quarterback play was the other issue in San Francisco, but the team seems intent on upgrading the position. Garoppolo was hurt for the majority of the year, but he wasn’t terrific even when he was healthy. He threw just seven touchdowns and five interceptions in six games and had his lowest yards per attempt and yards per completion of his 49ers career. San Francisco is very much in on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, but even if they don’t land the star quarterback in a trade with Houston, they’re a good bet to look elsewhere – whether it’s via trade or the draft – to get better under center.
The one detractor here is the loss of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who accepted the head coaching gig with the Jets and took over a few of his assistants as well. Saleh was one of the best defensive coordinators in the game over the last few seasons, so it’s definitely a big loss, but the 49ers have enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to soften the blow.
Carolina Panthers
The 2020 Panthers were a pesky but young team with good young coaching staff, led by first-year head coach Matt Rhule. Rhule guided Carolina to only five wins, but just three of the team’s 11 losses were by more than one score, so the Panthers were competitive in nearly every game.
Don’t forget, Carolina was missing their best player – Christian McCaffrey – yet they still averaged 349.5 yards of offense per game, which is an eight-yard improvement from 2019. That’s a testament to offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who’ll hopefully get a full season of McCaffrey to work with in 2021 after McCaffrey played in just three games and ran the ball a mere 59 times all year.
The extra playoff spot is a big factor in this selection, but I expect the division-rival Saints to take a step backward in 2021, leaving the door open for the Panthers to be one of the conference’s top seven teams. Carolina doesn’t have to edge out Tampa Bay for the division crown, they can sneak into one of the three wild card spots, and we’ll be able to cash a ticket.
Los Angeles Chargers
Despite finishing 10th in the league in both total offense and total defense in 2020, the Chargers ended the 2020 season under .500 and on the outside of the playoff picture. Many of the pieces are in place in Los Angeles, especially at quarterback with Justin Herbert, but they lost too many close games and brought in an entirely new coaching staff because of it.
Excluding a 45-0 drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, the Chargers lost their other eight games by an average of six points per game. All but one of those eight losses were by one possession, and Los Angeles had the lead in the fourth quarter in nearly all of them. Some bad luck, some bad coaching. Both areas should see improvement in 2021, and this team clearly has the talent at the skill positions to compete right out of the gate.
I believe we’ll get solid odds on the Chargers as well, seeing as they play in the same division as the two-time defending AFC-Champion Chiefs, but I think they’re a strong early contender to grab one of the three Wild Card spots.
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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.