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Early NFL Futures: Best Bets to Win the AFC

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The Kansas City Chiefs will enter the 2021 season as the favorites to win the AFC. But if Super Bowl LV taught us anything, it’s that the Chiefs have a few flaws that even Patrick Mahomes can’t overcome.

Namely, Kansas City’s offensive line depth and its entire defense were exposed against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. And with Mahomes’ mega-contract kicking in this offseason, the Chiefs will have a more challenging time fortifying the rest of its roster.

Betting against Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill is never easy. But at only +275 odds, the Chiefs aren’t a great value to win the conference. Plus, a few emerging teams could give Kansas City a run for its money in 2021.

Here are my three favorite early bets to win the AFC.

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Buffalo Bills +600

The Bills were everyone’s darling heading into the playoffs. But it was obvious Buffalo just wasn’t ready for the Super Bowl spotlight yet. They almost got tripped up by the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card Round, then needed a second-half collapse from the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, and gave up 31 straight points after getting out to a 9-0 lead in the AFC title game.

The Bills feel like the type of team that will use this playoff experience to its advantage and propel it into a Super Bowl appearance. Josh Allen took great strides in his third season and formed a dynamic duo with Stefon Diggs. The defense improved as the year went on. And Buffalo has one of the league’s best coaching staffs led by Sean McDermott, who will learn from his conservative decision-making in the AFC Championship.

Offensively, Buffalo must find more balance. The Bills could afford an upgrade at tailback from Devin Singletary and Zack Moss and need to bolster a front seven that allowed 4.6 rushing yards per attempt last season.

Buffalo is slightly over the salary cap ceiling, but they’ll have seven draft picks at their disposal. With a few upgrades and continued improvement from Allen, this team has legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. They’re my best bet to win the AFC.

Place your bet on the Bills >>

Cleveland Browns +1000

Look at this. We live in a world where I’m writing about the Buffalo Bills and the Cleveland Browns as best bets to go to the Super Bowl.

The Browns are plenty deserving of being mentioned in this piece. Cleveland finally found a real head coach in Kevin Stefanski, who was rightfully named Coach of the Year. Baker Mayfield clearly benefitted from Stefanski’s coaching and scheme, as he threw a career-low eight interceptions after tossing 35 picks in his first two seasons.

While Mayfield was much more efficient in 2020, Cleveland’s offensive success was primarily attributed to its powerful running game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should feast again in 2021 as long as Cleveland’s stellar offensive line stays healthy.

The Browns need to improve defensively. Pass rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward are building blocks, but this team needs wholesale improvements at all three levels of its defense.

Fortunately, the Browns could be primed for a massive offseason. They enter the offseason with over $20 million in cap space and have nine 2021 draft picks, including four in the first three rounds.

The Browns have a great opportunity to build a complete roster. They’re absolutely worth a shot to win the AFC at 10/1 odds.

Place your bet on the Browns >>

Indianapolis Colts +1200

Quarterback is the biggest question surrounding the Colts right now. Will it be Carson Wentz? Sam Darnold? Another short-term veteran? A rookie? The Colts have a big decision to make under center.

With the right quarterback, the Colts can certainly contend for a Super Bowl. Their defense finished 11th in points allowed and in yards per play allowed. Their offense has an elite line and a potentially elite tailback in Jonathan Taylor.

Where Indianapolis needs help, aside from quarterback, is on the perimeter. Their leading receiver last year was tailback Nyhiem Hines with 63 receptions. T.Y. Hilton is 31 years old, Michael Pittman showed some potential during his rookie season, and the depth receivers on the roster don’t inspire a ton of confidence. The Colts also need to shore up their secondary after finishing 20th against the pass.

Colts general manager Chris Ballard is one of the best in the league, and he’ll have plenty of resources at his disposal this offseason. The Colts currently have almost $70 million in salary-cap space and three picks in the top 85 of the draft.

Betting on Indy at 12/1 is a little risky, considering we don’t know who the quarterback will be. But the Colts are still worth a bet at this price.

Place your bet on the Colts >>

More Early NFL Futures

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.