Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 12
Another hit! Last week’s parlay hit at the longest odds of the season, +424. Two of the alternate spreads I selected hit right on the money — Packers (+3.5) and Chargers (-5.5). Even though you don’t get them at -110, alternate spreads have a ton of value for parlay bettors, as they often present better value than the moneyline but with less risk than the spread.
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday night.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 12. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook. Oh, and if you plan to bet on Thanksgiving, I’ve already written up my parlay for Turkey Day.
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#1. Browns at Jaguars (+10.5) — Alternate Spread (-210)
You don’t often blow teams out by multiple scores when you’re a run-first offense. Why? Your drives take up too much clock for you to get out to a massive lead. Case in point: the Browns attempt the third-most rushes per game, have the eighth-slowest offensive pace, and of their seven wins, only one came by 11-plus points.
“But Isaiah,†you might say, “you’re giving Jacksonville 10.5 points, not 11.5!†That’s technically correct. The Browns have won two games by 11-point margins, but that’s a rare outcome — only 2.5% of victories come by 11 points, while 10-point victories are much more common. As a result, I’m not going to turn down the value offered by this line to buy an extra point that probably won’t make much difference.
Jacksonville could get Gardner Minshew back this week, and news about his status will probably move this spread later in the week. But even if he doesn’t play, Jake Luton played passably against the Texans and Packers, so neither quarterback is key to this parlay.
UPDATE: Mike Glennon has been announced as the starter for Jacksonville’s home game against the Browns. I still recommend featuring this play due to the run-heavy nature of Cleveland’s offense. Glennon should be a competent enough game manager to keep the Jaguars within 10 points.
#2. Giants (-2.5) at Bengals — Alternate Spread (-215)
We don’t know exactly how bad the Bengals will be without Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow. But we do know that they will be bad.
Cincinnati’s offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards (3.76) and 24th in adjusted sack rate (7.4%). In contrast, the Giants’ defensive line ranks 18th in adjusted line yards (4.43) and 14th in adjusted sack rate (6.4%). So while the Giants aren’t perfect, they have a distinct advantage in the trenches, and that will cause problems for Ryan Finley.
The sophomore backup took four sacks in relief last week, and he averaged 3.7 per game when he replaced Andy Dalton last season. The Giants should give him fits in the pocket, which will make completing passes to downfield threats like Tee Higgins and A.J. Green nigh impossible.
That said, I don’t have much faith in New York’s offense. Daniel Jones has been incredibly inconsistent this season, and the team is on its third starter at running back. But you don’t need to trust the Giants that much to play them as field-goal favorites, and the state of Cincinnati’s offense makes New York worth including in this bet.
UPDATE: The Bengals announced that they intend to roll with Brandon Allen over Ryan Finley this week. Like Finley, Allen has also struggled with taking sacks in his short career — he took three per game as Denver’s starter last season. While he has fewer career turnovers than Finley, I don’t have much faith in his supporting cast, so Cincinnati remains a smart team to bet against.
#3. Dolphins ML (-286)
I’m keeping this play short this week as to not force anything. If you’re unsatisfied with the odds, well, you can always combine it with some of my Thanksgiving picks — the full six-leg parlay would have odds of +986, so you don’t even have to include every part. Adding Washington alone would boost your odds to +399.
It shouldn’t be controversial to bet against the New York Jets. They haven’t won a game all season, and they just lost starting running back La’Mical Perine to a high ankle sprain. The Jets will continue to start Joe Flacco, which is good news for Miami, as they limited the veteran quarterback to a 47.7% completion percentage, 186 yards, and no touchdowns in a 24-0 win earlier this season.
Don’t expect Gase to get his first victory against a team that held him to zero points just a few weeks ago.
Total Odds: +194
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.