Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 13
Hoo, boy. Last week’s parlays were quite frustrating to watch: Deshaun Watson and the coronavirus derailed Thanksgiving’s parlay, while the early parlay missed by one point after a late Bengals touchdown.
Early in the week, it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday night.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 13. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
#1. Bengals at Dolphins — UNDER 42 Points (-110)
I don’t usually feature over/under bets in my parlays, but since DraftKings is yet to post any alternate spreads for this game, I’ll use the total to bet against both offenses instead.
Last week, the Bengals scored 17 points without Joe Burrow, and seven of them came on a kick return and the ensuing extra point. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have scored only 33 total points in their last two games. While they’re averaging a respectable 25.8 points per game on the full season, that number is inflated a bit by a pair of defensive scores against the Rams and Cardinals. If you were to subtract those 14 points, Miami’s average would drop by over a full point.
While I’m not a believer in Miami’s offense, their defense has been rock-solid in 2020. They give up the second-fewest points per game to their opponents (18.6), and they should give Bengals backup Brandon Allen fits.
The Bengals might score 10-13 points this week, and Miami should get out to an early lead and run out the clock. They probably won’t top 28 points. This line is an especially great target if Tua Tagovailoa suits up, as the rookie hasn’t done much so far. He’s thrown for under 100 yards in two of his four starts.
#2. Saints (-2.5) at Falcons — Alternate Spread (-148)
The Falcons may have just shellacked the Las Vegas Raiders, but let’s not forget what happened the week before. Atlanta lost to New Orleans by a 15-point margin in Week 11, and I’m expecting a somewhat similar result here.
Yes, Atlanta will have the benefit of game film and on-field experience against Taysom Hill. But I don’t think that’ll be enough for them to close the gap by more than a field goal, as their struggles came on both sides of the ball. Matt Ryan completed barely over half of his passes, and the Falcons just couldn’t get much going with both Todd Gurley and Julio Jones banged-up. Meanwhile, their defense gave up 166 rushing yards and three scores.
As of Tuesday, it’s unclear whether the star players will be able to suit up in Week 13. Gurley couldn’t practice at all last week, and if he’s aggravated his arthritic knee, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him miss multiple weeks. And while Jones was able to practice last week, he’s been struggling with the same hamstring injury all year, and you never know when he’ll aggravate it next.
Interim head coach Raheem Morris said on Monday that he’s “hopeful†about the two players returning, but it doesn’t sound like he knows much for sure. I would use the early-week uncertainty to your advantage by betting on the Saints to win by at least a field goal. Although the Saints are favored by a three-point margin at DraftKings (and a four-point margin in FiveThirtyEight’s traditional Elo forecast), I would avoid a push by playing this line.
#3. Las Vegas Raiders ML (-335)
My first two picks are pretty aggressive relative to what I usually do, so I’ll wrap things up with a pair of moneyline sweeteners. It’s always safe to bet against Adam Gase, and even though the Raiders looked terrible last week, I doubt that they’ll continue to struggle against the Jets. They give up the fourth-most points per game (29.3).
It’s completely safe to dismiss Gase at this point. In Sam Darnold’s first game with the team’s top three pas-catchers all healthy, the Jets scored just three points, and the third-year quarterback threw two picks. After the game, Gase refused to take responsibility for the team’s play-calling.
Even though Las Vegas’ defense has looked very beatable, Jon Gruden won’t let his team fall to .500 against a winless coach.
#4. Kansas City Chiefs ML (-835)
The Chiefs should win their home game against the Broncos. Yes, I got burned by taking the Chiefs moneyline as a sweetener the one time they lost, but I’m undeterred this week because of how Denver played the last time these teams met.
Back in Week 7, the Broncos lost, 43-16. Patrick Mahomes only had to throw for 200 yards in the rout, as Kansas City recorded scores on offense, defense, and special teams. Drew Lock took three sacks and threw a pair of interceptions. Melvin Gordon lost two fumbles. That game was never close, and this one probably won’t be either.
Total Odds: +367
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.