Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 14
Another hit! Last week’s parlay delivered at odds of +367. Surprisingly, my “safe†moneyline sweeteners came the closest to busting, as the Chiefs and Raiders struggled more than expected against their opponents. Meanwhile, the CIN/MIA game cleared the under by 16 points, while the Saints (who we bought at -2.5) led by at least a field goal for almost the entire game.
Early in the week, it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday night.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 14. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
#1. Falcons at Chargers (+3.5) — Alternate Spread (-137)
The Atlanta Falcons will travel to Los Angeles this week, and both teams are coming off deflating losses. The Chargers just lost to the Patriots by 45-0, while the Falcons lost their second game of the year to the division-rival New Orleans Saints.
Both of these teams are functionally out of the playoffs, and DraftKings currently has the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites to win. Although they’re underdogs, I expect Justin Herbert to exploit Atlanta’s secondary, which ranks 19th in defensive efficiency, to keep this one within a field goal.
Why? The Falcons score 25.9 points per game, while the Chargers score 23.1 (2.8 point differential). Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense allows 25.2 points per game, and the Chargers give up 28.8 (3.6 point differential).
Not only do the point differentials suggest that there’s value in buying the Chargers as 3.5-point underdogs, but the Chargers’ own track record does, too. Of their nine losses, three came by a field goal or less. They are 4-1 as 3.5-point underdogs against teams with losing records. FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback-adjusted Elo model has Atlanta as just two-point favorites, and I’m comfortable pinning the parlay to a Herbert rebound.
#2. Steelers (+6.5) at Bills — Alternate Spread (-200)
I think that first play is fairly aggressive, so I’ll temper things down to make sure the rest of the parlay is secure.
The once-undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers are now 2.5-point underdogs for their trip to Buffalo, and I think that’s a pretty clear public overreaction.
Both the Steelers and Bills average exactly 27.8 points per game. They differ on defense, however, as the Steelers give up just 17.6 points per game to Buffalo’s 25.5. Yes, Pittsburgh did just lose star pass rusher Bud Dupree for the season, but they still have T.J. Watt, and they should maintain their league-best rate of 3.7 sacks per game against a Buffalo offensive line that ranks a pedestrian 16th in adjusted sack rate.
That said, the Bills could follow in Washington’s footsteps and pull out an upset win. I don’t think they have the defensive personnel to do it, but if they do, it probably won’t come by more than two field goals, as the Steelers rank eighth-best in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage allowed (56.7%) and first in touchdowns allowed per game (2.0). Pittsburgh’s strong defense makes them a safe play at +6.5.
#3. Washington (+7.5) at 49ers — Alternate Spread (-205)
I love to bet on Washington. The perpetual underdogs rank first in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage allowed (47%) and fifth in touchdowns allowed per game (2.3), so playing them as full-touchdown underdogs is usually a safe call.
Washington hasn’t lost a game by more than a touchdown since October 11th, the first game that Kyle Allen started. Since then, they’ve won four games, and their three losses came by an average of 2.3 points. Although they’ll likely be without rookie running back Antonio Gibson this week, they have serviceable replacements in J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are a fantastic team for Washington to line up against. The 49ers’ offensive line ranks 28th in adjusted line yards, while Washington’s defensive line ranks ninth. They should control the line of scrimmage, stifle the running game, and force Nick Mullens to pass — paving the way for sacks and reducing San Francisco’s offensive output.
The 49ers score just 23.8 points per game. That number falls to just 20 when you look at their last three games. Meanwhile, Washington averages 22 per game, and they’ve averaged 28 over their last three. I would be stunned if the 49ers win by more than a touchdown, yet the implied odds on this line suggest that that outcome has a 33% chance of happening. This line is a safe, value-based addition to our parlay.
#4. New Orleans Saints ML (-335)
Let’s wrap things up with a moneyline sweetener. The Saints could get Drew Brees back for this game, but his return doesn’t affect my read on this line. Instead, I just want to target Jalen Hurts in his first-career start. For the record, I have nothing against Hurts, and I think that he’s a fantastic talent. Unfortunately, he’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate, and the Saints’ defensive line ranks first in the metric.
This is a terrible time to give the rookie his first start, but Doug Pederson doesn’t care, and Hurts will get eaten alive on Sunday. The Eagles do not have a realistic path to victory here.
Total Odds: +407
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.