Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 15
Ugh. Last week’s parlay got derailed by a Saints moneyline bust that I felt was safe. Pittsburgh’s failure to cover as 6.5-point alternate spread underdogs against Buffalo made things worse, but hey, at least I nailed the LA Chargers and Washington picks. That’s a positive I’ll carry with me into this week.
Early in the week, it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play by every Wednesday morning.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 15. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
#1. Patriots (+2.5) at Dolphins — Alternate Spread (-113)
At 6-7, the Patriots haven’t had the season they’d hoped for, and last week’s late-game benching of Cam Newton doesn’t inspire much confidence in them moving forward. That said, New England just throttled the Chargers 45-0 a week before, and the Newton-led Patriots topped the Dolphins back in Week 1.
But my logic for this pick has little to do with the Patriots. Let’s take a look at Miami’s injury report, shall we? They probably won’t have wide receivers Jakeem Grant and Preston Williams this week, and they may not have DeVante Parker, either. They almost certainly won’t have tight end Mike Gesicki and running back Myles Gaskin, either, and backup running back Salvon Ahmed didn’t practice at all last week.
The Dolphins’ best pass-catchers this week could come down to hybrid player Lynn Bowden Jr., Mack Hollins, Isaiah Ford (who Miami traded to New England for a sixth-round pick earlier this year), and Adam Shaheen. That’s not a pretty picture.
Since Miami’s offense is running out of bodies to trot out on the field, the Patriots should be able to keep up with them in what should be a low-scoring game. I expect them to give the depleted Dolphins a scare while keeping this game within two points.
#2. Steelers at Bengals u40.5 (-115)
The Bengals and Steelers combined for 46 points back in Week 10, but boy, have times changed for both units. The Steelers have gone from undefeated to a two-loss team, and the Bengals lost their starting quarterback, Joe Burrow.
Since Week 10, the Steelers have averaged just 19.5 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bengals have averaged a measly 10 per game. With an average total of 29.5 points per game over the last four weeks, we’ve got a good bit of breathing room below this already-low projected total.
Both of these teams have banged-up signal-callers. The Steelers are now “seriously concerned†about Big Ben’s knee, according to Jason La Canfora, who added that “it’s been bothering him for weeks and sources say it’s not getting any better.†Meanwhile, Bengals starter Brandon Allen has left his last two games with different injuries, and the quarterback is “day-to-day†with his current ailment. If he can’t play, Ryan Finley will start, and the Bengals averaged 11 points per game in his three starts last year.
These are two depleted, discouraged rosters going up against one another, and you should expect a low-scoring affair on Monday Night Football — a far cry from last week’s matchup, huh?
#3. Buffalo Bills ML (-305)
Moneyline sweeteners aren’t always safe, but I’m confident that the Bills will take down the Broncos this Saturday. The Bills are 6.5-point favorites heading into the matchup, and they’re riding high after a big win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve now won all of their last three and six of their last seven.
In contrast, the Broncos haven’t done much this year. They’re sitting at 5-8 with wins over the Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins, and Panthers, who have a combined record of 18-34, and I don’t expect them to pull off the complete sweep of the AFC East this weekend.
Denver’s strengths lie on the defensive side of the ball, as they rank eighth-best against the pass, per FootballOutsiders. They’ve been much less remarkable against the run, however, as they rank seventh-worst, and their offense also ranks second-worst. The Bills, meanwhile, have the fourth-best passing offense and the 11th-worst rushing offense. While Denver’s secondary could cause problems for Josh Allen, Buffalo’s league-average defense should limit Drew Lock enough to secure the win.
The Broncos are still in the playoff hunt, but they’ll be eliminated with a Raiders win on Thursday Night Football. There’s a chance that they’ll have nothing to gain by Saturday, while the Bills could improve their playoff seeding with a strong finish to the year — and losses from Pittsburgh or Kansas City.
Total Odds: +370
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.