Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 3
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiple each time, which means greater returns for small investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 3. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Packers ML at Saints (+150)
Two of the league’s best wide receivers should’ve been going to head-to-head in this Week 3 matchup, but it’s now very unlikely that we’ll see them both.
Michael Thomas suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1, and those injuries tend to take between four to six weeks to heal. So while early reports make it sound like Thomas has a shot to play next Sunday, I’m not counting on it. On the other side, Davante Adams suffered a “non-serious†hamstring injury, but his status remains uncertain for Sunday’s game.
I have more faith in Aaron Rodgers’ ability to win without Adams than I have in Drew Brees’ ability to win without Thomas. And even if Thomas plays and Adams doesn’t, Aaron Jones flashed more than enough upside against the Lions for me to feel comfortable riding the uncertainty of this moneyline.
Also, FiveThirtyEight’s traditional Elo forecast gives the Packers a 45 percent chance to win, and their quarterback-adjusted forecast gives them a 47 percent chance. Those figures are both better than this line’s implied odds of 40 percent, which makes this line a great moneyline value pick to anchor our parlay.
#2. Raiders (+5.5) at Patriots (-104)
The Raiders have been the surprise of the season so far. When they first impressed against the Panthers, I dismissed the victory as a meaningless win over a bad team. Then they beat the Saints.
I will gladly eat my words and put money on the Raiders for next weekend. I think that they will keep things close against the Patriots, and even if New England gets an early advantage, their run-heavy offense will prevent them from building a lead big enough to cover.
Also, the Saints’ defense has been more formidable than the Patriots’ so far this season, according to FootballOutsiders, so if the Raiders can take one down, they’ve got a good chance to take down the other.
FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback-adjusted Elo forecast draws the spread for this one at -3.5. I would take the extra breathing room that DraftKings is offering and run.
#3. Bengals (+6) at Eagles (-114)
The Bengals burned me on the moneyline last week, but I still have faith in them, so I’ll come back to them in Week 3 ATS. Joe Burrow played well against the Browns on Thursday Night Football, and he’s starting to get comfortable in the NFL. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has looked terrible this season.
The Bengals don’t have the best defense, but they should be able to exploit some of Wentz’s mistakes to keep this one close. Also, the Eagles’ already-struggling offensive line will have to replace Isaac Seumalo, their starting left guard, and that should allow Carlos Dunlap, Geno Atkins, and D.J. Reader to feast.
FiveThirtyEight’s quarterback-adjusted Elo model gives the Eagles a 5.5-point advantage, a half-point less than the spread offered at DraftKings, and I think that there’s enough value here to justify its inclusion in Week 3’s parlay.
Total Odds: +800
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois