Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 4
Thank goodness that Week 3 saw fewer injuries than Week 2. Unfortunately, late-breaking injuries to the Las Vegas Raiders derailed my early-week parlay play for last week, but my anchor (Packers moneyline) turned out to be a good read.
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiple each time, which means greater returns for small investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 4. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Bears ML vs. Colts (+115)
Last week I anchored my parlay with the Packers moneyline in the plus money, and this week I’ll anchor it with the Bears moneyline in the plus money. The 3-0 Bears are underdogs against the 2-1 Colts, a team that’s only beaten the Jets and Vikings.
The Bears and Colts both rank in Football Outsider’s top six for defensive efficiency. The Colts also have a larger gap over the Bears in overall defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA), but one key factor undergirds these statistics — the Colts have only played the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. It’s easy to look good against disheveled rosters.
Although the Colts are favored at DraftKings, they’re underdogs at FiveThirtyEight — by both their traditional Elo model (+4.5) and their quarterback-adjusted model (+2). I think that this is the correct lean, especially because Allen Robinson caught 16 of 19 targets for 148 yards against Xavier Rhodes last season. He should have another strong showing against the Colts’ statistically overrated defense.
#2. Chargers/Buccaneers OVER 44 Points (-110)
This total is DraftKings’ second-lowest of the week. Only the Broncos and Jets are projected to score fewer points, and well, they’re the Broncos and Jets. Meanwhile, the Chargers have lost three of their best defensive players already this season — Derwin James, Melvin Ingram, and now Chris Harris.
I’m expecting the Chargers’ 11th-ranked defense to tumble without Harris and Ingram — they only ranked 13th last week against the Panthers’ struggling offense! The Buccaneers are the perfect opponent to exploit their newfound weaknesses through the air.
That said, the Buccaneers boast a strong defensive front that could limit the Chargers’ production. But Tampa Bay has allowed their opponents to average 20.3 points per game against them, and with their projected point total of 25.5, that would be enough for the over to clear.
It’s worth noting that this total sits at 43.5 at other books. You should watch the juice on this line, as any movement into the plus money — or an outright adjustment to the other line — would make this play all the more valuable.
#3. Saints ML at Lions (-182)
This line offers a combination of value and safety. The Saints are a safe bet to beat the Lions on Sunday, and they might even have Michael Thomas back to help them. Their 1-2 record may have some scared, but you should use that fear to your advantage — this is a team that went 13-3 last season and lost only to the Rams, Falcons, 49ers, and Vikings.
The Saints currently rank 11th in DVOA despite their 1-2 record. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 22nd. Both DraftKings and FiveThirtyEight give the Saints a four-point advantage, and a whopping 85 percent of experts have locked them in as their moneyline pick.
Exploit the early-week skepticism of the Saints — and the concerns about Thomas’availability. This line’s implied odds of 64.54 percent undersell the Saints’ chances to win, so lock this in while you can.
Total Odds: +537
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois