Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 5
The NFL is a quarter of the way through the season, and it’s starting to get a bit more predictable. That said, some teams still have inflated statistics due to their weaker opponents, while others may not be getting the respect they deserve. I’ll dig into these trends to find a smart early parlay bet for Week 5.
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 5. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Browns (+2) vs. Colts (-106)
The Cleveland Browns, who just throttled the Dallas Cowboys by a score of 49-38, are two-point home underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts. Give me a break — the Browns should be favored.
Cleveland has dropped one game all season, and it came against the division-leading Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens neutralized Cleveland’s running game by building up a big lead early, thereby forcing the Browns to pass. No other team has accomplished this feat.
The Colts have had a good start to the season, but they’ve beaten three of the most disappointing teams thus far (Vikings, Jets, Bears), and they lost to the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. We can credit their success to defensive efficiency, but it’s quite easy to be efficient against such mediocre opponents.
According to Football Outsiders, the Colts rank fourth in total defensive-adjusted value over average (DVOA). At -25.7%, there’s a wider gap between them and the fourth-ranked Washington Football Team (-13.9%) and the 12th-ranked Denver Broncos (-2.1%). Their advantage feels unsustainable to me, but it’s been enough to scare Vegas into favoring the Colts.
So why will Cleveland be the team to expose Indianapolis? Their run-first offensive approach should help them dominate the time of possession. Cleveland ranks 12th in total DVOA, which isn’t bad, but they rank second in rushing offensive efficiency at 13.3%. They’re one of six teams earning positive grades for their rushing offense.
Yes, there is a chance that Nick Chubb’s absence will reduce Cleveland’s effectiveness on the ground. But Kareem Hunt is still healthy, and Kevin Stefanski was able to get a ton out of backups Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone with the Vikings last season. I’m not worried.
You could either play the spread or the moneyline here. With the Browns moneyline at just +106, I’m recommending the spread because you can get two points of extra breathing room at -106.
#2. Panthers/Falcons OVER 53.5 Points (-110)
Both of these teams have seen their star players get hurt. Christian McCaffrey is stuck on injured reserve with an ankle injury, while Julio Jones continues to struggle through a hamstring injury. So why are we playing the over?
Easy. These teams field two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Falcons have given up 138 points so far, and the Panthers aren’t far behind with 102 points allowed. If you add up these two teams’ average points allowed (34.5 and 25.5), you get 60 — 6.5 more points than what this line projects.
So we know that both the Panthers and the Falcons rank in the bottom eight for defensive efficiency. Can their offenses take advantage of that? So far, that’s somewhat debatable. Atlanta has averaged 26.5 points per game to Carolina’s 24.75. That’s only good for 51.25 total points per game, a notch below this line, but I’m confident that poor defensive play will make up the difference.
And I’m not alone in coming to this conclusion. So far, 14 of BettingPros’ experts have picked the over for this matchup. Only one expert has picked the under, and he took it at 54.5. I’m a fan of unanimity, and that’s what we’ve got with this pick.
#3 Ravens ML vs. Bengals (-715)
I don’t have many other good early reads this week, so let’s wrap up this parlay with a pair of safer plays to sweeten things up. The 3-1 Ravens opened as 13.5-point favorites over the 1-2-1 Bengals, and they’re a great bet to keep things rolling.
The Ravens rank third in total DVOA, while the Bengals find themselves back in the 20th spot. Lamar Jackson is 3-0 in his career against Cincinnati, and he’s averaged 112 rushing yards per game against them. The Bengals may have looked good in their Week 4 victory over the Jaguars, but they have given us no reason to doubt the Ravens’ ability to beat them in Baltimore.
#4. Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Raiders (-275) — Alternate Spread
Like Jackson and the Bengals, Mahomes hasn’t lost a start against the division-rival Raiders. In his four wins against them, he’s managed to score 12 touchdowns, and the Chiefs have won by margins of 40-33, 35-3, 28-10, and 40-9 — good for a 22-point average margin of victory.
While you could risk it and play the Chiefs as 12.5-point favorites against the spread, it’s worth noting that Kansas City only scored 40 points after their bye weeks. Their offense has been less overpowering without the extra rest, so they may not be as much of a slam-dunk to cover the posted line as some expect.
That said, the Mahomes has always beaten the Raiders by at least one touchdown, and this line (-275) offers a lot more value than the moneyline (-715).
Total Odds: +482
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois