Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 6
The 2020 season has been chaotic thus far. We’ve already had a series of postponements and schedule changes, and we can expect more moving forward. But such uncertainty creates an opportunity for courageous sports bettors.
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 6. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
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#1. Football Team (+3.5) at Giants — Alternate Spread (-132)
I’m going to anchor this parlay with a pair of underdog alternate spreads. The Football team is entering their game against the Giants as 2.5-point underdogs, yet the Giants are one game behind them in the divisional race.
New York’s strong offensive showing against the Cowboys is the likely explanation, as the Giants scored 34 points. That said, Daniel Jones still hasn’t thrown for a touchdown since Week 1, and 20% of their points came on a defensive score. I’m not sold on their offensive’s effectiveness; they still rank dead-last in offensive efficiency per Football Outsiders.
To be fair, the Football Team isn’t much better — they rank 31st on the same list. However, their defense ranks fourth in efficiency, and they should be able to capitalize on Daniel Jones’ inability to hold onto the ball.
I won’t take Washington to win. That wouldn’t be a dumb bet, as FiveThirtyEight has this game as a pick-em. I would play the alternate spread here to give you enough breathing room for a field-goal loss, especially with the mess Washington has under center.
#2. Bears (+3.5) at Panthers — Alternate Spread (-143)
At 4-1, the Bears have been one of this season’s biggest surprises. They topped the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Thursday, so they’ll take on the 3-2 Carolina Panthers after some extra rest. I don’t know if they’ll win, but they’ll at least keep things close.
Chicago boasts the fifth-best defense and the seventh-worst offense, while Carolina has the seventh-best offense and the eighth-worst defense. That calls for an awkwardly balanced matchup, as both teams can neutralize the others’ strengths, but they may struggle to capitalize on their respective weaknesses.
The Panthers’ three-game hot streak has come on the back of ex-Bear Mike Davis. That’s right, Chicago cut Davis last November after signing to a two-year deal before the 2019 season began. It’ll be a revenge game for him, but the Bears give up the 12th-fewest yards per reception (6.86) to opposing running backs. That’s worse than two of Davis’ opponents (ARI, 12.1; ATL, 7.37) — only the Chargers (6.44) were better at limiting running backs through the air.
Since 48.3% of Davis’ yards have come in the passing game, that doesn’t bode well for his (or the Panthers’) chances.
Again, I don’t know if the Bears will pull off the upset. But they’re a logical underdog play, especially with an alternate spread (I’m expecting some line movement in the Panthers’ favor, too, so this bet may gain value as the week progresses). FiveThirtyEight even favors the Bears, so I’m comfortable including this pick in my parlay.
#3. Miami Dolphins ML (-345)
Let’s sweeten this play with a couple of moneyline picks, shall we? The 2-3 Dolphins are eight-point favorites over the 0-5 Jets, and New York has shown no signs of life this season.
The Jets haven’t just lost every game — they’ve also lost every game by at least two scores. They came closest to winning against the hobbled Denver Broncos in Week 3, and it’s hard to take a team coached by Adam Gase seriously at this point. Note that this line should trend downward as the week progresses.
#4. Baltimore Ravens ML (-335)
Here we’ve got the second-safest moneyline pick of the week. The 4-1 Ravens haven’t looked incredible, but they’ve been good enough to win four games. They’ll face the struggling Philadelphia Eagles in Pennsylvania this week, and it seems like they’ll soon be 5-1.
The Ravens have forced two turnovers per game this season, and Wentz is turning the ball over twice per game. We can expect another sloppy game from the Eagles, and the Ravens are a safe moneyline pick as a result.
Total Odds: +402
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois