Early NFL Parlay Bet for Week 7
Welcome to my early parlay for Week 7! Last week’s play hit at odds of +402, so I hope that you cashed in.
Early in the week (and in the season), it’s easier to get an edge on the sportsbooks. Less money has come in, and fewer potential storylines are certainties, so you have some wiggle room that you’re unlikely to get on Sunday. There’s a lot of opportunity for early-week bets, and as a result, I’ll walk you through a three-to-four pick parlay play every Tuesday night.
While it’s tempting to keep adding games to your parlay, the key is only to make as many picks as you feel confident about. The upside with parlay bets is that your odds multiply each time, which means greater returns for smaller investments. Of course, it also means additional risk, and just one lousy prediction can ruin the whole play.
Here is my early recommended parlay for Week 6. All odds are courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook.
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
#1. 49ers (+3.5) at Patriots — Alternate Spread (-150)
The Patriots and 49ers have both struggled with depth this seasons. While New England may win this weekend, I fully expect San Francisco to keep things close. Also, both of these teams rank in the top eight in time of possession, so I doubt that we’ll see either of them get out to too big of a lead.
Why do I expect this to be a low-scoring game? Both of these teams feature run-first offenses. The Patriots attempt 33 rushing plays per game, the most in the league, while the 49ers attempt the 17th-most (27.5).
Both teams are also scoring relatively few points per game. San Francisco ranks 20th (24.7), and New England ranks 25th (21.8).
The actual line for this game at DraftKings has the Patriots at -2.5, so we’re getting an extra bit of breathing room with this line. Why? I want to get over the key number of three in case the Patriots end up winning by a field goal.
#2. Bills (-9.5) at Jets — Alternate Spread (-195)
The Jets are bad. Really, really bad. Adam Gase’s team ranks last in points per game (12.5) by a wide margin. Seriously, there’s a bigger gap between the 32nd-ranked Jets and the 29th ranked Denver Broncos (20 PPG) than the Broncos and the 12th-ranked Browns (27.2).
In contrast, the Bills have looked good. Not perfect — they looked bad against the Chiefs and Titans — but good. That’s all they’ll need to top the Jets by at least 10 points again, which is what they did in Week 1.
Since then, the Jets have lost two key playmakers: Steve McLendon and Le’Veon Bell. As a result, it’ll be even more difficult for them to keep the Bills from covering this alternate spread.
The actual line for this game currently sits at 13. That isn’t bad, but I would rather play things safe at the expense of some value — you don’t want a backdoor covering foiling your four-way parlay, do you?
#3. Chiefs (-5.5) at Broncos — Alternate Spread (-195)
Let’s play one more alternate spread. The Chiefs are currently nine-point favorites over the Broncos heading into Week 7, but as we saw with the Chargers and Raiders, they aren’t immune to divisional upsets against the spread. That’s why I’ll take the extra cushion instead of playing the better odds.
Since Patrick Mahomes took over this offense, the Chiefs are 4-0 against the Broncos (including the game where he got hurt last season). In order, the final scores in those games were 27-23, 30-23, 30-6, and 23-3, respectively.
With Mahomes healthy, the addition of Le’Veon Bell, and the looming suspension of Melvin Gordon, it’s easy to favor the Chiefs here. I just wouldn’t risk my parlay on their ability to cover a two-score spread.
#4. Los Angeles Chargers ML (-345)
I’ll cap this parlay off with moneyline sweetener. The Chargers are clear favorites over the Jaguars; FiveThirtyEight gives them the third-best chance of winning on the slate.
They’re heavily favored because the Jaguars are struggling. They’ve scored just 17 points per game over the last four weeks, and they’ve given up 32 points over that same span. Every team that’s played the Jaguars over that timeframe (and one week back, too) has scored 30-plus points.
You could roll with an alternate spread here, too, but I would avoid incurring additional risk.
Total Odds: +398
DraftKings Sportsbook: View our review and access special sports betting offers >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois